Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at National Championship

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Matthew Angove

5th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.6

Surp

4.4

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Steven Liu (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maxim Zervos (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Smith (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Liam Bennett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Madeline Southwood (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.10
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.23
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.47
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.75
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.89
R13	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Evan Bicknell

43rd • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

4.9

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Spencer (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs German Glukhov (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Lewis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Fahad Rahman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Tom Nguyen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Philip Nagle (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	1.03
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.76
R12	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.66

Spencer Horton

35th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.1

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Watt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Robert Piper (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Maxim Zervos (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs German Glukhov (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs logan boyd (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Tom Debney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	2.44

Daniel Johnson : )

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vinh Luong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Dobler (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Oliver Hill (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.17
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.