Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at National Championship

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Matthew Angove

5th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.6

Surp

4.8

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Steven Liu (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maxim Zervos (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Smith (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Liam Bennett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Madeline Southwood (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.05
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.55
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.70
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.59	2.21
R13	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Evan Bicknell

43rd • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

5.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Spencer (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs German Glukhov (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Lewis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Fahad Rahman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Tom Nguyen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Philip Nagle (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.13
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.28
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.94
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.70
R12	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00

Spencer Horton

35th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

3.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Watt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Robert Piper (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Maxim Zervos (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs German Glukhov (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs logan boyd (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Tom Debney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.29
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	2.56

Daniel Johnson : )

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vinh Luong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Dobler (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Oliver Hill (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.17
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.