Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at National Championship 2025 - Australia
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
13 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.6
Surp
6.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kael Sabben (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Anthony O’Hara (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Xavier Nelson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 80:20
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
Round 11: Win vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Matthew Angove (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Justin Lim (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
6.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 80% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Win |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R14 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Loss |
5th • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.2
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ian Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Emma Hollingsworth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Murray Shaw (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20
25:75
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Isaac Katsakis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
75:25
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Zachary Cauchi (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 76:24
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Madeline Southwood (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Justin Lim (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R11 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Win |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R13 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Loss |
9th • 5-1-0
67%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
2.9
Surp
6.8
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Brad Adam (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Tom Debney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Round 11: Win vs Gary Manttan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
80:20
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Henry De Malmanche (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
6.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Win |
| R12 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
40th • 5-1-0
83%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
2.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Sarah Nicholas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Brendan Champion (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Henry De Malmanche (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Alessandro Pena (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Remi Grasset (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
80:20
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Murray Shaw (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R10 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
48th • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Ruairidh Wasson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Clark (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Brendan Champion (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
80:20
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Owen Young (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Zachary Gardiner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Alexander Dobler (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
66th • 2-3-1
33%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
2.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matt Quigley (Unknown)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Liam Bennett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nick Butcher (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
25:75
R10 CC
Round 10: Draw vs Roy Lai (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
25:75
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Fahad Rahman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Nando Nando (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Draw |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R12 | Betsy, Skin in the Game | 50% | Win |
31st • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.4
Surp
2.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Maxim Zervos (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50
95:5
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Luey (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 96:4
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Dowling (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Frank Karamaroudis (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 30:70
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Peter Katsakis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Daniel Cooper (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 95% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
| R10 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 30% | Loss |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
62nd • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.6
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Anthony O’Hara (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Toby Firth (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Cooper (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
80:20
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Louis Jia (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Alexander Dobler (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Sarah Nicholas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.9
Diff
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 85% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.3
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Declan Bradley (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nathan Lucev (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs benji muehlebach (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Danial Affendy (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Aidan Ward (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs John Farren (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
1.4
Surp
1.4
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Isaac Katsakis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Spencer Horton (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
Round 3: Win vs Ruairidh Wasson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.3
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Justin Lenihan (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Round 2: Loss vs Tye Soens (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andreas Andronicou (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.