Azalea, Ace in the Hole at National Championship 2025

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Daniel Cooper

21st • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

5.2

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Remi Grasset (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nando Nando (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nick McGrath (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Ethan Dominy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ryan Taylor (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Andrew Qi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

5.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.77
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.65

Daimon Martin

73rd • 1-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Peter Katsakis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Lim (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Steven Young (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jonas Ryen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Thomas Mifsud (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs John Farren (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.31
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Alex Jamieson

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alex Crowther (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Mifsud (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.55
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Tom Bradford

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Van Daalen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zachary Gardiner (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Abigail Evans (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.