Dash I/O at National Championship 2025

Dash I/O

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Louis Shum

19th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Igor Brkic (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew O'Grady (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matt Nguyen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Beckett McNeil (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Cody Gebert (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Gary Manttan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R10	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.37
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.49

Vincent Lim

61st • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Philip Nagle (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Lewis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Murray Shaw (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Matthew O'Grady (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Freeman Monika (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.20
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R11	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Taufik Indrakesuma

64th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alex Jamieson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Henry De Malmanche (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Emma Hollingsworth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Matthew O'Grady (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs James MacDonald (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Thomas Mifsud (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.40
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Thomas Dowling

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Steven Young (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jordan Finch (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Qi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.10

Valentine Nguyen

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Arthur Kindl (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 34:66

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs John Cavenett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Roy Lai (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.75

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.