National Championship 2025 - Australia - Dash I/O (CC)

Dash I/O

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Louis Shum

19th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.8

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Igor Brkic (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew O'Grady (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matt Nguyen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Beckett McNeil (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Cody Gebert (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Gary Manttan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R10	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.61
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.76

Vincent Lim

61st • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Philip Nagle (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Lewis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Damian Moss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Murray Shaw (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Matthew O'Grady (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Freeman Monika (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.14
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.29
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R11	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Taufik Indrakesuma

64th • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alex Jamieson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Henry De Malmanche (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Emma Hollingsworth (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Matthew O'Grady (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs James MacDonald (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Thomas Mifsud (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.41
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Thomas Dowling

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Steven Young (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jordan Finch (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Qi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.24
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.06

Valentine Nguyen

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Arthur Kindl (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs John Cavenett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Roy Lai (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.