Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at National Championship 2025 - Australia
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
53rd • 4-2-0
83%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.4
Surp
2.7
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Louis Shum (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Stephen Thompson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Taufik Indrakesuma (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35
65:35
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Vincent Lim (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35
Round 12: Loss vs Remi Grasset (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.