Kano, Dracai of Aether at National Championship 2025

Kano, Dracai of Aether

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Amelia Hulin-Bobart

23rd • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.4

Surp

6.7

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zachary Cauchi (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Vincent Lam (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs William Bucknall (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs James Lewis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Owen Young (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Blake Godenzi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

6.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.35
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.90
R11	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.59	2.33
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	2.08

David Spencer

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Evan Bicknell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jarrod Bowler (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Troy Wilson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.04

Steven Young

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Dowling (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Euan Ansell (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daimon Martin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.03

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.