Kassai of the Golden Sand at National Championship 2025

Kassai of the Golden Sand

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Justin Lim

1st • 7-2-0

67%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

6.5

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joon Chien Tan (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daimon Martin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kael Sabben (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Euan Ansell (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Isaac Katsakis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Nick Butcher (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Sam Sutherland (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Madeline Southwood (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Nick Butcher (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

6.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.25
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.61
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.40
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R13	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.40
R14	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.50
R15	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	1.17

Jake mccormack

10th • 5-1-0

67%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

4.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tom Karunaratne (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Minh Tran (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Fahad Rahman (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Peter Katsakis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

85:15

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Beckett McNeil (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 83:17

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.13
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	1.17
R11	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.48
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.29

Alessandro Pena

47th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luke Lewis (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sable Wang-Wills (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kuan Li (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Nathan Lucev (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Blake Godenzi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs James Lewis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.61
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Matthew Clark

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jarrod Bowler (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs benji muehlebach (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs logan boyd (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.64
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Vinh Luong

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Johnson : ) (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Frank Karamaroudis (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aidan Ward (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.