Fai, Rising Rebellion at National Championship 2025 - Australia
Fai, Rising Rebellion
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
15th • 4-2-0
67%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
2.8
Surp
3.8
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yousef Mnahy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 36:64
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Vinh Luong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Round 3: Win vs Alexander Van Daalen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
70:30
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Andrew Qi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 70:30
R11
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Max Chapman (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs logan boyd (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R11 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.