Fai, Rising Rebellion at National Championship 2025 - Australia
Fai, Rising Rebellion
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
15th • 4-2-0
33%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
2.7
Surp
4.1
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yousef Mnahy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Vinh Luong (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51
Round 3: Win vs Alexander Van Daalen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Andrew Qi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
65:35
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Max Chapman (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 67:33
35:65
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs logan boyd (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 65% | Win |
| R12 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.