Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at United States National

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

58 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Andrew Rothermel

2nd • 7-4-0

73%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

5.2

Surp

5.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zoey Gerstner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Sitrick (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jeff Stamm (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs ry mo (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Majin Bae (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R16 CC

Round 16: Win vs Aaron Grace (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R17 CC

Round 17: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.32
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.38
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.99
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R14	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.11
R15	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.22
R16	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.27
R17	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Jonah Overholt

11th • 7-1-0

100%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

6.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matt Kohls (Unknown)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Oliver Phi (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mykel Kramer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rhea Adams (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Chase Feaster (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Caleb Engen (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Andrew Lorenz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

6.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.33
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.38
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.57
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.42
R14	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.56

Noah Beygelman

40th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

4.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alejandro Ziegenhirt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Kennon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Magnuson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ashley Briggs (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Daniel Rothhaar (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Joe Santianna (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Justin Graham (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.23
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.57
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R14	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Nicholas Porter

51st • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

6.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zackary Whitt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Theodore Maximiuk (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bryan Knecht (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Spencer Wilkerson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Noah Biros (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Liam Trodden (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jacob Bader (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Mark Cornett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

6.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.11
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.27
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.52
R11	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.38
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.46
R14	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

James Mangles

73rd • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.8

Surp

6.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Bugoci (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Pedro Esaki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Demetris Guzman (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Miles Slack (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Scott Khuu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Trent Lennon (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Kyle Femmer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Nick Allen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

6.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.34
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.52
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.52
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.27
R13	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.62
R14	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.56

Bryan Knecht

83rd • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

4.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Hebert (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Charlie Herren (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Porter (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Emery Powell (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Thomas Yarbrough (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Jacob Bader (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.08
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.31
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R14	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Bryce Stroyek

27th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Grant Strom (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Singleton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Casey Dugan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Natalie Hunt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.38
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.76
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.52
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.61
R14	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.59

Jonathan Magnuson

59th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.3

Surp

6.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs William Pearlman (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mercy Bickell (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Jackson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Matthew Tickal (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Tommy Hendricks (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Luke Manship (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

6.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.19
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.25
R12	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	30%	Win	✗	0.70	2.61
R13	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R14	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.84

Chase Feaster

67th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

6.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mark Cornett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mark Morrison (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Devin Simms (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kent Summerour (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Spencer Wilkerson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs William Pearlman (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Zachary Knutson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

6.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.20
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.46
R14	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.65

Brandon Stolzer

94th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Richard McMahon (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs nicklas starland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Puckett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Justin Graham (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Arjun Garg (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jacob Kissel (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Ethan Oechsle (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.11
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.14
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R13	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.47
R14	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Liam Trodden

100th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gary Gold (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Devon Porcher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jesse Hinman (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Nick Gabler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Chris Rowland (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs John Zapata (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.76
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.23
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R14	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.56

Chris Waugh

102nd • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.8

Surp

4.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Oren Yishai (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Geiger (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matt MacLeod (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nick Tucker (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Tim Casto (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Merrick Kemp (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Riley Lont (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Maxwell Mitchell (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.34
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R11	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.27
R13	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R14	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.66

Tommy Buljan

112th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

5.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Shawn Reed (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Reitenbach (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Shawn Adams (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Dmytro Kozhevin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs David Sitrick (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Thomas Yarbrough (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

5.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R11	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R13	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.62
R14	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.53

Matthew Greenleaf

128th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dayna Hagewood (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kyle Yoder (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dalton Gomez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Merrick Kemp (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Zackary Whitt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.33
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.52
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R14	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.53

Chris Martin

53rd • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Travis McDaniel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs nicklas starland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

90:10

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Caleb Lolley (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 90:10

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Chandler To (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

30:70

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Luke Hillard (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.11
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.08
R11	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.07
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R13	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R14	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.56

Kyle Femmer

99th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elyse Symmes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alex Becker (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Wright (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dylan Tucker (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Evan Dyck (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs David Wadley (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs James Mangles (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Adam Cook (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.33
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.19
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R13	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.84

Clint Bonds

124th • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Kissel (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Abraham Figueroa (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dmytro Kozhevin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Kai Pickett (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Zackary Whitt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.54
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R11	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.42
R14	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Dmytro Kozhevin

131st • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Lawton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ethan Davison (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Tague (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Clint Bonds (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Daniel Johnson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Alberto Ruiz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Matthew Puckett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.11
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.35
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.45
R14	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.66

Travis Wagner

126th • 3-5-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pedro Esaki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs nathan lapham (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Drew Bosco (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Fuzzy Delp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Joshua Paris (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs ry mo (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.16
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R11	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R14	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.84

David Sitrick

135th • 3-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dylan Grytness (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Fowley (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zack Phillips (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Devin Rattenni (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Scott Khuu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Anthony Bugoci (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.40
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R11	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.56
R13	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

MOISES LOPEZ

123rd • 2-6-0

62%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ashley Briggs (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Mueller (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Biggs (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mathew Zoglman-Garcia (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Luke Manship (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Emery Powell (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

100:0

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs David Watson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 100:0

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.45
R11	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R13	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R14	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Keenan Humphrey

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Mueller (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brenden Jones (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kyle Schalich (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Rudin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Braxton Friend (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.43
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.51
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Arjun Garg

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zak Cargin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Steven Nemeth (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Mara Faris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Brandon Stolzer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.15
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.76
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Shane Martin

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matt Garner (Unknown)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Williams (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tho Bui (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Trent Lennon (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Anthony Bugoci (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.60
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Joshua Tavares

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kyle Yoder (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Casey Knepley (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Merrick Kemp (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Luke Hillard (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Paul White

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Cæruleus Silver (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jack Sandau (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Erick Leong (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	2.00

Clover Ausdemore

dropped • 3-1-0

25%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nick McCarthy (Unknown)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Justin Smith (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nick Tucker (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.87
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.89
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Matthew W

dropped • 3-1-0

50%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Burns (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Emi Sieting (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chris Rowland (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.79
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.52

Andy Modell

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eric Towne (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Josh Lind (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dakota Cook (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.14
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Anthony Puskas

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dylan Tucker (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zachary Suchomel (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Vinh Vien (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.09
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.63
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Derek Anderson

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Brouillet (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Laflin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Slotnick (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.63
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

James Cæruleus Silver

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paul White (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nathan Burns (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mark Morrison (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Fuzzy Delp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.67
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.64

Jesse Kennon

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joshua MacMillan (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Henry Gomez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Stowe (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.14
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Kenn Johnson

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Douglas Levy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jordan Long (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kyle Pollitz (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Yuanji Li (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

Michael Pawlak

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nick Tucker (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kyle McKeough (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zachary Adams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs John Cooper (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.14
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Nathan Burns

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew W (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Cæruleus Silver (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander McFarlane (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Austin Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.79
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Nicholas Mejac

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Abarca (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Austin Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cheaman Buckwalter (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

100:0

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jesus Montijo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 100:0

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.68
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-

Phillip Spader

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs STEVEN HAWKER (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chandler To (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mychael Caywood (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.58
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Steven Nemeth

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zephen James (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Arjun Garg (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Emmitt Luna (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nicolas Seegraves (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.52

Abraham Figueroa

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Yarbrough (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Clint Bonds (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cameron Robbins (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Arthur Reynolds

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob hampson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nik Dinnis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Akers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.38
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Benjamin Williams

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.1

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Virgil Toms (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sage Husanu (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Shane Martin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Scott Khuu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.09
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-

Dayna Hagewood

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Greenleaf (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Travis McDaniel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Hamilton-Sutherland (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Axel Sisbarro (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.45

Gary Gold

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Liam Trodden (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Hebert (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alejandro Ziegenhirt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jenna Schoettker (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

John Cooper

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Austin Revera (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs John Paul Kilcrease (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Pawlak (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.38
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matt Johnson

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Justin Rowland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs James Tague (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Matthew Meehan

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Robbie Valdez (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicolas Seegraves (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

100:0

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Anthony Herzog (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 100:0

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-

Rihanna LaGrou

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Taylor Weil (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Nelson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 30:70

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.83
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Tee Thebeau

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Reitenbach (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Timothy Long (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Rutkowski (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Zack Phillips

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zachary Wallach (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Colin Swisher (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bryan Hefner (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs David Sitrick (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.79
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Isaac Hirt

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs jordan johnson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nathan Dollman (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Drew Bosco (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mark Morrison (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Jeremy Langevin

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joe Santianna (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Holden Isaacs (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brenden Jones (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Kevin Canales

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Louis Solymos (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alan Valdez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nathaniel Meserve (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Menion Croll

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Rolf (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jack Sandau (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Erik Dethlefs (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Demetris Guzman (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Shawn Reed

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chris Ray (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Loberg (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Lawton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Darren Knopes

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander McFarlane (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Matt Pollitt

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Levi Rauch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Shawn Adams (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Josh Johnson

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Fryar (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.