Dorinthea Ironsong at United States National Championship

Dorinthea Ironsong

12 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Daniel Johnson

74th • 7-1-0

50%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

7.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aria How (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brennan Tolnay (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 71:29

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 18:82

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Anastasia Benner (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Dmytro Kozhevin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Casey Dugan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Alejandro Ziegenhirt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

7.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.12
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.76
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.06
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.27
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.59	2.12
R14	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.46

Charlton Smith

106th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matt Johnson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dalton Gomez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 71:29

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Carlos Cruz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jacob Bader (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 71:29

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Elizabeth Sprinkle (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Clint Bonds (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.12
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.50
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R12	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.73
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R14	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.36

Joshua Lau

56th • 4-4-0

38%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kyle Schalich (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gabriel Torres (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Bryant (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cas Mulder (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 71:29

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Douglas Levy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs David Wadley (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.50
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.24
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R14	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.46

Douglas Levy

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kenn Johnson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David M. Smith (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nick Allen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Nicholas Jackson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.11
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.58
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.87
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Lucas Baughn

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Williams (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jesus Montijo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.15
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Pedro Esaki

dropped • 3-1-0

50%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Travis Wagner (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Mangles (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jerome Trujillo (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andy Hong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.99
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.30

Chris Weidinger

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.9

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gabriel Guerrero (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 26:74

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastian Anaya (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 26:74

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eric Wilson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nick Allen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.32

Elias Brooks

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Chang (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Caleb Engen (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mychael Caywood (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 18:82

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Virgil Toms (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.12
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.30

Gabriel Arnell

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jordan Biggs (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 18:82

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dakota Kunert (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 67:33

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Erick Leong (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 26:74

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Raj Parikh (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84

Zachary Suchomel

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Timothy Carter (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Puskas (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Singleton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.14
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Benjamin Laflin

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kyle Flowers (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Derek Anderson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Snedeker (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Timothy Carter

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zachary Suchomel (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs KC Glass (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs STEVEN HAWKER (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Charles Simmons (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.