Dorinthea Ironsong at United States National Championship

Dorinthea Ironsong

12 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Daniel Johnson

74th • 7-1-0

50%

Meta

+3.4

Perf

3.9

Surp

8.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aria How (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brennan Tolnay (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Chen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Anastasia Benner (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Dmytro Kozhevin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Casey Dugan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Alejandro Ziegenhirt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

8.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.75
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.13
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.24
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.90
R14	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.81

Charlton Smith

106th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matt Johnson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dalton Gomez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Carlos Cruz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jacob Bader (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Elizabeth Sprinkle (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Clint Bonds (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.10
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.38
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R12	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.96
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R14	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.44

Joshua Lau

56th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

4.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kyle Schalich (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 23:77

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gabriel Torres (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Bryant (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cas Mulder (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Douglas Levy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs David Wadley (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.38
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.32
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R14	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.81

Douglas Levy

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kenn Johnson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David M. Smith (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nick Allen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Nicholas Jackson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.55
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.86
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Lucas Baughn

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Williams (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jesus Montijo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.18
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.03

Pedro Esaki

dropped • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Travis Wagner (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Mangles (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jerome Trujillo (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andy Hong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.77
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.17

Chris Weidinger

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gabriel Guerrero (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastian Anaya (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eric Wilson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nick Allen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.77
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

Elias Brooks

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Chang (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Caleb Engen (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 49:51

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mychael Caywood (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Virgil Toms (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.17

Gabriel Arnell

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jordan Biggs (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dakota Kunert (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Erick Leong (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Raj Parikh (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.35
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.03

Zachary Suchomel

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Timothy Carter (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Puskas (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Singleton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.12
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Benjamin Laflin

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kyle Flowers (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Derek Anderson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Snedeker (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Timothy Carter

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zachary Suchomel (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs KC Glass (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 23:77

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs STEVEN HAWKER (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 23:77

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Charles Simmons (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.