Fai, Rising Rebellion at United States National

Fai, Rising Rebellion

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

David Watson

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Mullis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Trent Lennon (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Elly Bird (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dave Cordeiro (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Riley Lont (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Adam Cook (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

0:100

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs MOISES LOPEZ (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 0:100

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.29
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.72
R11	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R13	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-

Amber Zee

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Herbert (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Caplinger (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Connor Talty (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jesus Montijo

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alberto Ruiz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Baughn (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

0:100

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Mejac (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 0:100

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.32
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-

Anthony Herzog

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs nicklas starland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kai Pickett (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Taylor Weil (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

0:100

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Meehan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 0:100

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-

Garrett Shustarich

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Oliver Phi (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dan Mui (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bryan Hefner (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.