Fai, Rising Rebellion at United States National

Fai, Rising Rebellion

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

David Watson

dropped • 3-4-0

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Mullis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Trent Lennon (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Elly Bird (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dave Cordeiro (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Riley Lont (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 39:61

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Adam Cook (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68

25:75

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs MOISES LOPEZ (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

0% (0/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.21
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.48
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.94
R11	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R13	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Amber Zee

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 30:70

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Herbert (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 39:61

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Caplinger (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Connor Talty (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.30
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Jesus Montijo

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alberto Ruiz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Baughn (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 37:63

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Mejac (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.34
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Anthony Herzog

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs nicklas starland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kai Pickett (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Taylor Weil (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Meehan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Garrett Shustarich

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Oliver Phi (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dan Mui (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bryan Hefner (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.