Nuu, Alluring Desire at United States National Championship

Nuu, Alluring Desire

57 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Daniel Rothhaar

25th • 7-1-0

62%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

4.3

Surp

7.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs William Pistel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Justin Graham (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Yarbrough (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Trenton McBride (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Elizabeth Sprinkle (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Justin Fryar (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Ryan Biggs (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

7.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.60
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.09
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R13	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.87
R14	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.78

Thomas Battaglia

20th • 6-1-1

50%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

4.1

Surp

4.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luke Hillard (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Lau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Paul Carr (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Charlton Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Draw vs Ethan Davison (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Chris Martin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Austin Somers (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.38
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.58
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R11	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.43
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R14	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	1.19

Joe Santianna

15th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.6

Surp

4.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jeremy Langevin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Korner (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Anastasia Benner (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Franche Tan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Alexander Vore (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Austin Somers (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.25
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.26
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.45
R12	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.91
R13	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.55
R14	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Mark Johnson

22nd • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

4.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Meehan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jesus Montijo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Robbie Valdez (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Daniel Ferrara (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Mara Faris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.29
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R11	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.93
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	1.02
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R14	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.87

Gui Cohen

26th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

5.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Evan Dyck (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lucas Molho (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ethan Oechsle (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Rhea Adams (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Isaac Brooks (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.20
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.17
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.76
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.94
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	1.11
R14	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.78

Caleb Engen

28th • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.7

Surp

5.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicolas Seegraves (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Elias Brooks (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rhea Adams (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs James Pack (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Spencer Wilkerson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Roger Bodee (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.09
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.60
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.63
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.62
R14	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.75

Roger Bodee

46th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs quintin ludtke (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 62:38

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dakota Cook (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ethan Oechsle (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Alejandro Ziegenhirt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jonathan (chugs) Moore (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Benjamin Hebert (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Caleb Engen (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.08
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.11
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R11	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.38
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.66
R14	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Chris Brummett

72nd • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

7.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Meffert (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs John Zapata (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Canales (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cooper Templeton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Tommy Buljan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Clint Bonds (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Alex Tyler (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

7.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.36
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.80
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.31
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.43
R13	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.71
R14	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.38

Tim Casto

117th • 5-2-1

75%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs George Dilling (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Koosha Jahani (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jodey Burney (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Chris Waugh (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Draw vs Casey Dugan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Alejandro Ziegenhirt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.25
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.26
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.76
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.31
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Draw	✗	0.35	-
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Natalie Hunt

42nd • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ben Odenheimer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Boudreaux (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Elizabeth Sprinkle (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kyle Schalich (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 73:27

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Justin Fryar (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Bryce Stroyek (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

75:25

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.25
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R11	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.58
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.43
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R14	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Spencer Wilkerson

63rd • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

4.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sjohn Chambers (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Emery Powell (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Chase Feaster (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Caleb Engen (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Justin Fryar (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.09
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.17
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R11	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.84
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.43
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.02

Luke Manship

90th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Shane Ginter (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Carlos Samaniego (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew McInnis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs MOISES LOPEZ (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jacob Bader (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

75:25

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Dakota Cook (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.09
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.17
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.31
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R13	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.74
R14	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Adam Cook

119th • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Freeh (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Austin Chinn (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dan Wolak (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Devon Porcher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Randall Robinson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs David Watson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Marco Marcelli (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Kyle Femmer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.26
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R12	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.17
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R14	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Andrew Blackwell

75th • 3-4-1

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Dollman (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Eric Lin (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Roger Bodee (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs jordan johnson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Austin Somers (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Draw vs Matthew Vore (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.19
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.15
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Draw	✗	0.33	-
R14	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Ethan Davison

76th • 3-4-1

88%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Julio Vazquez (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dmytro Kozhevin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Robert Alonso (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 73:27

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Draw vs Thomas Battaglia (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Timothy Long (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Mara Faris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Ashley Briggs (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.17
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R11	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R13	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R14	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Alejandro Ziegenhirt

88th • 3-5-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Martin Cox (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gary Gold (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Omeid Vadipour (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Roger Bodee (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Tim Casto (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Daniel Johnson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.36
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R11	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.62
R14	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

ry mo

136th • 3-5-0

88%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ronan Sovitzky (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Schneider (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Clair (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Chris Rowland (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Alberto Ruiz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Noah Biros (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Travis Wagner (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.23
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.53
R13	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R14	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Sage Husanu

dropped • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Wolverton (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Williams (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 73:27

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Clark Jansen (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 73:27

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Michael Snedeker (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 73:27

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs James Tague (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.11
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.20
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.26
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.72
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R13	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Devin Rattenni

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Louis Solymos (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Luke Hillard (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs David Sitrick (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.18
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.75
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Alexander McFarlane

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Darren Knopes (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nathan Burns (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Theodore Maximiuk (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 66:34

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.38
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.49
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Alex Slotnick

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Snedeker (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 73:27

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Josh Lind (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Ejupi (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Derek Anderson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.11
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

David Reitenbach

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tommy Buljan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

Elyse Symmes

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kyle Femmer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Noah Rolf (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mara Faris (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs James Pack (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.46

Holden Isaacs

dropped • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Miles Slack (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeremy Langevin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Virgil Toms (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Korner (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.14
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

Ian Siczewicz

dropped • 3-1-0

50%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Tague (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 73:27

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Merrick Kemp (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.38
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.51
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Noah Geiger

dropped • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs CODY READY (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chris Waugh (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.38
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Aria How

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Johnson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Parker Sutton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Mueller (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Graham (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Caleb Womack

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Goodwin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Phil Kinney (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Mihalas (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dexter Phan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.25
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Cole Love

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kai Pickett (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Robinson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 34:66

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kyle Johnson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nik Dinnis (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.59
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Dave Cordeiro

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonathen Byrd (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Koosha Jahani (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs francisco guerrero (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs David Watson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.39
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Derek Copp

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tommy Hendricks (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jordan Blankenship (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alan Valdez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jordan Biggs (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.51
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Dyllon Dietz

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alberto Ruiz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yazan Masad (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Baughn (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.20
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Easton Douglas

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yongji Yang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Louis Solymos (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jodey Burney (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gabriel Torres (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Eric Towne

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andy Modell (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zackary Whitt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Lalo (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.51
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.56

Jack Sandau

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Casey Knepley (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Menion Croll (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Randall Robinson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Paul White (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Joe Mastowski

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Chang (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cody Williams (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chad Burden (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.17
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.68

Louis Solymos

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Canales (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Easton Douglas (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Devin Rattenni (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Walker (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.61

Luis Maderas

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nick Allen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rodrigo Martinez (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Oliver Phi (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Evan Dyck (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.25
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.76
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Zephen James

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Steven Nemeth (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathaniel Meserve (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Abarca (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.51
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Andrew Loberg

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Shawn Reed (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Travis McDaniel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Bryan Hefner

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Smith (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kyle Yoder (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Garrett Shustarich (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Clay Smith

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Tickal (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Charles Simmons (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Emery Powell (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.20
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Colin Swisher

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zack Phillips (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Derek Byrne

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jordan Johns (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Josh Gardner (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs William Pearlman (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.17
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Emi Sieting

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew W (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Eric Wilson

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Devin Simms (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jenna Martin (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Weidinger (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Devon Killebrew (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.60

Hazel Hensley

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Virgil Toms (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Caleb Lolley (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cheaman Buckwalter (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

Mercy Bickell

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Clair (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Paris (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alberto Ruiz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.15
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Miles Slack

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Holden Isaacs (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dakota Cook (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs James Mangles (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Nathaniel Meserve

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Brayer (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zephen James (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kevin Canales (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Raj Parikh

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rhea Adams (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Snedeker (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 73:27

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Tickal (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gabriel Arnell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Thor Hoffman

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Hardy (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Vinh Vien (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zak Cargin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Yongji Yang

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Easton Douglas (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matt Jacobs (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bryce Henschel (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Dietz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.80
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Yuanji Li

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dakota Kunert (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Casey Dugan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kenn Johnson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.17
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Alexander Mueller

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Keenan Humphrey (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs MOISES LOPEZ (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aria How (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.64
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

David Lee

dropped • 1-0-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Kehe (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Kyle Flowers

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Laflin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (0.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.