Vynnset, Iron Maiden at United States National Championship

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Daniel Winckler

dropped • 3-1-0

25%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.6

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Paul White (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jordan Long (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.44
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.59
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.57

Noah Rolf

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Menion Croll (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Elyse Symmes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 29:71

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ronan Sovitzky (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Julian Sniffen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.61
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Kevin Brayer

dropped • 1-2-1

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.4

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nathaniel Meserve (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Kent Summerour (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Stowe (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dan Mui (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.44
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Draw	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Christopher Presley

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Franche Tan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gabriel Torres (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Abarca (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Kevin Hardy

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Mullis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dalton Gomez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zackary Whitt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.85
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.