Vynnset, Iron Maiden at United States National Championship

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Daniel Winckler

dropped • 3-1-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dyllon Dietz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Paul White (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jordan Long (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.29
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.62
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.94

Noah Rolf

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Menion Croll (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Elyse Symmes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ronan Sovitzky (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Julian Sniffen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.21
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.49
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Kevin Brayer

dropped • 1-2-1

25%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nathaniel Meserve (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Kent Summerour (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Stowe (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dan Mui (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.29
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Draw	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Christopher Presley

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Franche Tan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 36:64

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gabriel Torres (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Abarca (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Kevin Hardy

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 44:56

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Mullis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dalton Gomez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zackary Whitt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.