Riptide, Lurker of the Deep at United States National Championship 2024
Riptide, Lurker of the Deep
16 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
55th • 6-2-0
50%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
3.6
Surp
5.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Rihanna LaGrou (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matthew Greenleaf (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Lucas Molho (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ian Siczewicz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Riley Lont (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
20:80
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Justin Graham (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 21:79
Round 14: Win vs Matthew Tickal (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
5.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 20% | Loss |
| R14 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 30% | Win |
129th • 6-2-0
88%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
3.8
Surp
4.3
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 63:37
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Rodrigo Lopez (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Giovanni Scuderi (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Clover Ausdemore (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 43:57
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs None (Unknown)
Round 13: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R14 CC
Round 14: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
4.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R13 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 65% | Loss |
| R14 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
92nd • 5-3-0
38%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.9
Surp
4.9
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Derek Copp (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Scott Khuu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Austin Chinn (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ashley Briggs (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
Round 11: Win vs Dakota Cook (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Randall Robinson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Jonathan Magnuson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Win |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R13 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R14 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 45% | Loss |
87th • 4-3-1
50%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.9
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Yazan Masad (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 63:37
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tyson Au (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Anthony Puskas (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Mark Cornett (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
20:80
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 21:79
65:35
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Sage Husanu (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34
25:75
R14 CC
Round 14: Draw vs James Tague (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 20% | Loss |
| R13 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Win |
| R14 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Draw |
dropped • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michael Pawlak (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Clover Ausdemore (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Chris Waugh (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44
25:75
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 25:75
20:80
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Jacob Kissel (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 21:79
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R11 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Loss |
| R12 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 3-1-0
50%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
1.7
Surp
2.2
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Charles Simmons (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Cole Love (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Clark Jansen (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 25:75
Round 4: Win vs Kai Pickett (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 30% | Win |
dropped • 3-1-0
75%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Biggs (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Christopher Presley (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Easton Douglas (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Win |
dropped • 3-1-0
75%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs James Pack (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 63:37
Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 65% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.6
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Dave Cordeiro (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Micheal Thompson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Chris Morris (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 63:37
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Oren Yishai (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Spescha (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Devon Killebrew (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 63:37
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Vore (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
25%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.4
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Archer Taylor (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 63:37
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.4
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Isaac Hirt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kyle McKeough (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.5
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs James Tague (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 25:75
Round 2: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Tyler Horspool (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 63:37
Round 4: Loss vs Eric Towne (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jamie Grantham (Unknown)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tanner Lee (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dexter Phan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs CODY READY (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-1
100%
Meta
-2.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Kennon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Vore (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Devon Killebrew (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 65% | Draw |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Hinman (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 43:57
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Wolverton (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 30:70
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44
Round 4: Loss vs Pheano Black (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 65% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.