Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at United States National

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Chandler To

58th • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

4.1

Surp

5.1

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Giovanni Scuderi (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 27:73

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dylan Grytness (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Chris Martin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Connor Talty (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Elijah Calub (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Joel Recinos III (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.78
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.64
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R14	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.45

Dexter Phan

dropped • 3-1-0

25%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Akers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luke Magnuson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Caleb Womack (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.41
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.82
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.86

Drew Bosco

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alek Idol (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tyson Au (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Isaac Hirt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Travis Wagner (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.74
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

francisco guerrero

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kyle Nunn (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Rudin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dave Cordeiro (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Brotton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.