Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at United States National

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Chandler To

58th • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

4.1

Surp

5.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Giovanni Scuderi (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dylan Grytness (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Chris Martin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Connor Talty (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R13

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Elijah Calub (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

30:70

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Joel Recinos III (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

5.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R12	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Win	✗	0.71	3.16

Dexter Phan

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Akers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luke Magnuson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Caleb Womack (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Drew Bosco

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alek Idol (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tyson Au (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Isaac Hirt (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Travis Wagner (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.95
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

francisco guerrero

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kyle Nunn (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Rudin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dave Cordeiro (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Brotton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.