Katsu, the Wanderer at United States National Championship

Katsu, the Wanderer

Katsu, the Wanderer

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sherman Darrenkamp

65th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.9

Diff

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Fowley (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Shane Martin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Liam Trodden (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Dash I/O

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mara Faris (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Nuu, Alluring Desire

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Franche Tan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Nick Gabler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Nicholas Jackson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.37
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.56
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.38
R14	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.48

93rd • 3-5-0

62%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.6

Diff

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chris Morris (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Robbie Valdez (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Prism, Awakener of Sol

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs James Cæruleus Silver (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 36:64

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Travis Wagner (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Kano, Dracai of Aether

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Justin Graham (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Emery Powell (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Benjamin Hebert (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	35%	Win	✗	0.64	2.04
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.42
R14	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Rich (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Ray (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

Fai, Rising Rebellion

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Amber Zee (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Prism, Awakener of Sol

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jodey Burney (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Chandler To (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Luke Hillard (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	2.08
R12	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

dropped • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

Nuu, Alluring Desire

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Roger Bodee (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Horspool (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Rutkowski (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Martin Cox (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50

Nuu, Alluring Desire

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Cook (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tommy Hendricks (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

0:100

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs nicklas starland (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 0:100

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.71
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	0%	Loss	✗	0.00	-

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

Dorinthea Ironsong

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Baughn (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 33:67

Kano, Dracai of Aether

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cheaman Buckwalter (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

Uzuri, Switchblade

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Devon Porcher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.4

Diff

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Carlos Samaniego (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Omeid Vadipour (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

Kano, Dracai of Aether

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Corey Baker (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50

Nuu, Alluring Desire

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joe Mastowski (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

Nuu, Alluring Desire

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62

Dorinthea Ironsong

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gabriel Arnell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 33:67

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Jacobs (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Charles Poe (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.