Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at United States National Championship 2024
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
14th • 5-3-0
12%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alexander McFarlane (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Daniel Winckler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Gui Cohen (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ethan Davison (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
25:75
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73
30:70
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs nathan lapham (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 29:71
45:55
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Majin Bae (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 45:55
25:75
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
12% (1/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
| R12 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R13 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Win |
| R14 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
43rd • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.8
Surp
1.7
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Wesley Dong (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jacob Kissel (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Evan Ford (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Justin Fryar (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
25:75
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73
Round 12: Loss vs Carlos Cruz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
70:30
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Chris Martin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32
40:60
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R13 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R14 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
25%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.9
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matthew Meehan (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32
Round 2: Win vs Fuzzy Delp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Shaker (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.5
Surp
2.6
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Evan Ford (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Round 2: Loss vs Rihanna LaGrou (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Anthony Herzog (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Round 4: Win vs Aaron Albright (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.4
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Chang (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Menion Croll (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Shane Ginter (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Cameron Robbins (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Elizabeth Sprinkle (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Cole Love (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Braxton Friend (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.2
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lucas Oswald (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 55:45
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Caleb Womack (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs David Wadley (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 27:73
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ronan Sovitzky (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.