Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro at United States National

Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Justin Fryar

80th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Josh Johnson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dallin Wallenda (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 77:23

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 44:56

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alex Tyler (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Natalie Hunt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Elly Bird (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Daniel Rothhaar (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Spencer Wilkerson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.21
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.09
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R11	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.77
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R14	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Benjamin Schneider

dropped • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Caleb Lolley (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs ry mo (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Carlos Cruz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.36

Devin Simms

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eric Wilson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Giovanni Scuderi (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chase Feaster (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 31:69

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rodrigo Martinez (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Tanner Lee

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lee Kimball (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luke Magnuson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Franche Tan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.34
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Seth Clark

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Rudin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 39:61

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Austin Henson (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 77:23

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Spescha (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.28
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.