Kano, Dracai of Aether at United States National

Kano, Dracai of Aether

26 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alexander Vore

29th • 7-1-0

75%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

5.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Darren Knopes (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Spescha (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Schneider (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Anthony Bugoci (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Joe Santianna (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

80:20

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Franche Tan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

5.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.14
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.13
R3	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.13
R11	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R12	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.52
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.74
R14	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.59	2.27

Justin Graham

31st • 7-1-0

75%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

6.3

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs STEVEN HAWKER (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Rothhaar (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kobe Phan (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Aria How (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Brandon Stolzer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Fuzzy Delp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Damien Riggins (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 79:21

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

6.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.03
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.33
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.51
R12	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R13	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.57
R14	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.92

Braxton Friend

34th • 6-2-0

38%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

7.9

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Scott Khuu (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 16:84

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 46:54

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brendan Thomas (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 16:84, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kyle Johnson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Keenan Humphrey (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Benjamin Meffert (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Randall Robinson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Andrew Mendelsohn (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

7.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Win	✗	0.84	1.01
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.51
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.66
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.74
R14	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.52

Peter Buddensiek

38th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.5

Surp

6.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Amber Zee (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Solava (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Fouk (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Maxwell Mitchell (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 16:84, underdog victory

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 46:54

15:85

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 16:84, underdog victory

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Evan Dyck (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Bryce Stroyek (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

6.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.12
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Win	✗	0.84	1.34
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Win	✗	0.84	4.03
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R14	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Nathaniel Snyder

103rd • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

4.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Devin Rattenni (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dan Mui (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matt Johnson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zachary Suchomel (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 74:26

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Matthew Greenleaf (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs William Pearlman (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.41
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.22
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.65
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R14	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.52

Majin Bae

35th • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Horspool (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeremy Stowe (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Elizabeth Sprinkle (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 16:84

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Christopher Iaali (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs David Wadley (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.14
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.33
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R11	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.79
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R13	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R14	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Jacob Kissel

105th • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Clint Bonds (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Tyler (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Meffert (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bryce Morgan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Franche Tan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

80:20

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Nick Tucker (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 79:21

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Brandon Stolzer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Emery Powell (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.14
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.65
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R12	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.52
R13	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R14	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.52

Erick Leong

140th • 2-6-0

62%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Steven Caraher (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gabriel Arnell (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Corey Baker (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Paul White (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 47:53

15:85

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 16:84

15:85

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Matthew Puckett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 16:84

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Alberto Ruiz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.11
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.17
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R14	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Corey Baker

dropped • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Franche Tan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Akers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chad Burden (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Erick Leong (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.65
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jonathan Fouk

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dan Wolak (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Julian Sniffen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chris Ray (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Julian Sniffen

dropped • 3-1-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Simon Aguirre (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Fouk (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Travis McDaniel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Noah Rolf (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.83
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.46

Nicholas Mihalas

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nathan Crawford (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Drew Gary (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Caleb Womack (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.13
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Richard McMahon

dropped • 3-1-0

50%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Stolzer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Peter Beck (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zayne Johnson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Giovanni Scuderi (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.65
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.46

Emmitt Luna

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adam Hamilton-Sutherland (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rhea Adams (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Steven Nemeth (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joel Thompson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.82
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Gabriel Guerrero

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chris Weidinger (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Tickal (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Liam Donnelly (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.11
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.54
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Joseph Freeh

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adam Cook (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alan Valdez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.83
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Matt MacLeod

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 16:84

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nick Allen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Waugh (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rodrigo Lopez (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.54
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.46

Richard Yanke

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Wadley (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zachary Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alex Becker (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Yazan Masad (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.11

Ronan Sovitzky

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs ry mo (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kyle Pollitz (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Rolf (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Phil Kinney (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Sebastian Anaya

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Flavin (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 16:84

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chris Weidinger (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 74:26

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Lawton (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Paris (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.22
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.83
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Zachary Miller

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Biros (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Richard Yanke (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Spescha (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Isaac Brooks (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.39
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Alek Idol

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Drew Bosco (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tristen Farmer (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Chang (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Demetris Guzman

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 16:84

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs James Mangles (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Menion Croll (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.10

Cheaman Buckwalter

dropped • 0-3-1

50%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Devon Killebrew (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Williams (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Mejac (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Hazel Hensley (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Draw	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Alexander Caplinger

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elizabeth Sprinkle (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 16:84

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jerome Trujillo (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Amber Zee (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chris Morris (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Mathew Zoglman-Garcia

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Josh Lind (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 16:84

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Akers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs MOISES LOPEZ (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.