Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire at United States National Championship 2024
Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
70th • 5-3-0
62%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.8
Surp
5.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Cole Love (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 40:60
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Anthony Herzog (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Bryce Morgan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 60:40
Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Robinson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
70:30
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Clint Bonds (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 70:30
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Ryan Biggs (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Benjamin Meffert (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52
Round 14: Win vs Randall Robinson (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
5.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 70% | Loss |
| R11 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Loss |
| R13 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Win |
89th • 4-4-0
62%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
4.7
Surp
3.0
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Clay Smith (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Gabriel Guerrero (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48
Round 3: Win vs Raj Parikh (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Round 4: Win vs Jude Cornett (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Rhea Adams (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52
Round 12: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52
Round 14: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Loss |
| R13 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 3-1-0
75%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.8
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Isaac Brooks (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kyle Schalich (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Rihanna LaGrou (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 70:30
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.9
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Stowe (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Aaron Albright (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 64:36
Round 3: Loss vs Douglas Levy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Daniel Flavin (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 67:33
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.2
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ravi Sharma (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 64:36
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ashley Briggs (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Boudreaux (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jamie Foster (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Bryan Hefner (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Round 2: Loss vs Clover Ausdemore (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Korner (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sage Husanu (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 40:60
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jeff Stamm (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 70:30
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kent Summerour (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52
Round 4: Loss vs Micheal Thompson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 75% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.