Levia, Shadowborn Abomination at United States National

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

22 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mark Cornett

10th • 7-1-0

88%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

6.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chase Feaster (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 21:79

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs John Zapata (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Rhea Adams (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Nicholas Porter (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

6.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R11	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.47
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.25
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.36
R14	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.64

Christopher Iaali

44th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mychael Caywood (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dexter Phan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Baughn (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bryan Knecht (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Majin Bae (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Joe Santianna (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 34:66

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Nick Allen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.68
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.28
R14	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Riley Lont

91st • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Lau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yazan Masad (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jenna Schoettker (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Biggs (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs David Watson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Chris Waugh (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Franche Tan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R11	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.38
R12	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R13	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.52
R14	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Eric Lin

134th • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Mound (Unknown)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 34:66

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joe Colon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Zackary Whitt (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Matthew Puckett (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs John Zapata (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42

20:80

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Trent Lennon (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.30
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.09
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R14	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

John Paul Kilcrease

132nd • 3-5-0

50%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 21:79

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Drew Walker (Unknown)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs John Cooper (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Cook (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Spencer Wilkerson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 34:66

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 29:71

20:80

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 21:79

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Anthony Pham (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.35
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.36
R11	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R14	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Brandon Ejupi

dropped • 3-1-0

25%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chenjun Liu (Unknown)

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chris Ray (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alex Slotnick (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (1.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	20%	Win	✗	0.79	1.12
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.16
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Joel Thompson

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gus Enger (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Carlos Cruz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Goodwin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Emmitt Luna (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.59
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.75

Brandon Akers

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dexter Phan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Corey Baker (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mathew Zoglman-Garcia (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Arthur Reynolds (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.56
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Brennan Tolnay

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Josef Mendez (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Johnson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 29:71

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Archer Taylor (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Aaron Grace (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Dalton Gomez

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Charlton Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 29:71

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Hardy (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Greenleaf (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Michael Rutkowski

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marco Marcelli (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mara Faris (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Casey Knepley (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tee Thebeau (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Nicholas Chang

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.3

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Elias Brooks (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 29:71

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Erik Dethlefs (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Solava (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alek Idol (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.75

Alex Ptak

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Micheal Thompson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 21:79

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Austin Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Simon Miller (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.33
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Bryce Morgan

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matt Jacobs (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Merrick Kemp (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 21:79

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kai Pickett (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Kissel (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Cas Mulder

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonny Espejo (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ethan Oechsle (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 21:79

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Biros (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 21:79

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Jonathan Walker

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mara Faris (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ben Odenheimer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Rowland (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 21:79

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Louis Solymos (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.40
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Josef Mendez

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brennan Tolnay (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Quinn Wongkew (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joshua MacMillan (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.07

Michael Barnes

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Ferrara (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 21:79

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Bader (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 21:79

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Parker Sutton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 21:79

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kyle Pollitz (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Michael Clair

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mercy Bickell (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Charles Simmons (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs ry mo (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 34:66

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonny Espejo (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Theodore Maximiuk

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Herbert (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Porter (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Carlos Samaniego (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 21:79

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alexander McFarlane (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Patrick Fowley

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Sitrick (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dagan White (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Peter Beck

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Carlos Cruz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Richard McMahon (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.