Dash I/O at United States National Championship 2024

Dash I/O

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mara Faris

49th • 7-1-0

50%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

6.4

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Walker (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Rutkowski (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Elyse Symmes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Arjun Garg (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Noah Biros (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Ethan Davison (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

6.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.06
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.13
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.55
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.73
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.04
R12	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	2.39
R14	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Tyler Stammer

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Korner (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dylan Tucker (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Simon Aguirre

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Julian Sniffen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.