United States National Championship 2024 - Kassai of the Golden Sand (CC)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Grant Huddleston

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Casey Dugan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 23:77

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Drew Gary (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Meffert (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 20:80

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.19
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.69
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Micheal Thompson

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Ptak (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonathen Byrd (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jordan Biggs (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 20:80

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Wolverton (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.70
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.65

Ryan Solava

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Barrett Goss (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 32:68

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Chang (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 79:21

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cody Williams (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.25
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Tyler Biggs

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs JP Coleman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bryce Henschel (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 23:77

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs MOISES LOPEZ (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs adam bidler (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.15

Kyle McKeough

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Dietz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Pawlak (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Clint Bonds (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Dollman (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.41
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Axel Sisbarro

dropped • 0-3-1

50%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs jaime bessett (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Austin Revera (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 23:77

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Omeid Vadipour (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 23:77

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dayna Hagewood (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.