Calling: London - Aurora, Shooting Star (CC)

Aurora, Shooting Star

184 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Andrea Mengucci

2nd • 15-2-0

100%

Meta

+5.8

Perf

7.9

Surp

7.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adam Fischer (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rhys Francis (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Giannis Koumidis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Francisco Pimenta (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Isaac Fogg (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ioannis Makrygiannis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Mário Abrantes (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs John Cooper (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jasper de Riet (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jorgen Fleussu (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Nguyen Giang (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Diorge Brognara (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R16 CC

Round 16: Win vs Alexandre Castanheira (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R17 CC

Round 17: Loss vs Emily Froese (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (17/17 favorable matchups)

Performance

+5.8 Wins (9.2 expected, 15 actual)

Surprise

7.9 total deviation

Difficulty

7.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.05
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.16
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.35
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.39
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.53
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.45
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.54
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.59
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.76
R14	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.82
R15	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R16	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.78
R17	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Brian Lorenz

5th • 11-4-0

87%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

7.3

Surp

4.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thuong Nguyen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Karl Roche (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mário Abrantes (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tim Greenaway (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Yorgos Samaras (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Robert Catling (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jude Cornett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Clay DeAngelis (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Emily Froese (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

87% (13/15 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (8.0 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

7.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.09
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.18
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.11
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.22
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.47
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.58
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.55
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.73
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.66
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R14	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R15	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Diorge Brognara

5th • 11-4-0

87%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

7.6

Surp

5.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jason Watkins (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Lantz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Giannis Koumidis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Alex Price (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Yorick Schulte (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Carlos Carrero (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Alexandre Castanheira (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jasper de Riet (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jude Cornett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Jorgen Fleussu (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

87% (13/15 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (7.7 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

7.6 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.07
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.13
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.49
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.47
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.51
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.80
R10	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.62
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.61
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.83
R14	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R15	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nguyen Giang

15th • 11-3-0

86%

Meta

+3.6

Perf

6.3

Surp

5.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Igor Koutzevitch (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Kindberg (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gabriel Leeming (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Niklas Astner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Luis Felipe Bueno da Silva (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Russell Howse (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs SEAN STELL (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Leon Schüßler (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Akihiro Takano (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Dominik Piatkowski (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Johannes Schorpp (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Alexandre Castanheira (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Gary Gold (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (12/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.6 Wins (7.4 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

5.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.07
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.13
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.58
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.47
R9	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.53
R10	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.57
R11	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.58
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.71
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Nicolas Lazarides

17th • 11-3-0

100%

Meta

+3.5

Perf

6.6

Surp

5.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Collett (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yahir Peñarrubia (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Shelly (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tom Ward (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Oli Cornish (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Lancelot Errico (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Stephen Manning (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Ilias Karamanis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Toni Savolainen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Roman Legíň (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Yorgos Samaras (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Peng Joon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Noah Hicks (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (14/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.5 Wins (7.5 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

6.6 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.07
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.18
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.25
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.44
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R11	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.79
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.77
R14	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Faustin Falissard

20th • 11-3-0

86%

Meta

+3.7

Perf

6.9

Surp

6.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Trinh (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adrián Marín (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Johannes Janovsky (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Maurice Philip (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Andy Pham (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Luis Felipe Bueno da Silva (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Peng Joon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Scott "HowlingMines" Mines (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Lucas Navarro (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Louis Guillot (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Bernar Aganchyan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Gaál Benjamin (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

86% (12/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.7 Wins (7.3 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

6.9 total deviation

Difficulty

6.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.13
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.19
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R11	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.67
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R13	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.23
R14	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.32

Yorgos Samaras

21st • 10-4-0

100%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

6.7

Surp

4.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eliot JOBE (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cody Williams (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mirko Dolce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Scott "HowlingMines" Mines (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ilias Karamanis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Balint Herendi (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jas Tin Lim (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Nathan Hills (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Gary Gold (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Nicolas Lazarides (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Emily Froese (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Alexandre Castanheira (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (14/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (7.5 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.04
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.21
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.30
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.53
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.73
R11	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.79
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R14	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Kim Scheerer

25th • 10-4-0

86%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

7.2

Surp

4.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Manu Van Driessche (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Devon Killebrew (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tomas Liutvinas (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Johannes Schorpp (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nikola Kramarić (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Szabolcs Egri (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Alexandre Castanheira (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Ian Siczewicz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Wesley Dong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Stephen Manning (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

86% (12/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (7.4 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

7.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.09
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.20
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.34
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.85
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R11	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.80
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.89
R14	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Gary Gold

26th • 10-4-0

79%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

6.8

Surp

5.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hamish Dean (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Victor Lenoble (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 86:14

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Sanchez (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Steve Andrew (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Simon MacDonald (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Seiichi Yasuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Lucas Navarro (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Kurt Vooys (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Fernando García-casarrubios (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs axilleas siskopoulos (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Yorgos Samaras (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Carlos Carrero (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Maciej Janik (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Nguyen Giang (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

79% (11/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (7.3 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.06
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.03
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.47
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R7	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.47
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.97
R11	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.15
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.93
R14	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Taylor Crawford

33rd • 10-4-0

93%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

6.9

Surp

4.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tiago Polónio (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Gut (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Carlos Lojo Bernabeu (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Frederik Emil Hansen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jonathan YUSTE (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Diorge Brognara (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Connor O'Sullivan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Thomas Battaglia (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Kim Scheerer (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Stephen Manning (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Noah Hicks (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Wesley Dong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

93% (13/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (7.5 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.05
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.06
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.20
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.36
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.76
R9	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.66
R10	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.59
R11	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.79
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R14	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.96

Maciej Janik

49th • 9-5-0

100%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

6.5

Surp

3.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nuno Paiva (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Malyk Höfle (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Hammer (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs John Cooper (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tiago Polónio (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Evan McTernan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Nick Butcher (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs JORDAN BEANGE (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs simon diaz (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Ilias Karamanis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Krzysztof Rybczyński (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Gary Gold (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs John Kitsos (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (14/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (7.8 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.06
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.18
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.27
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.47
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.29
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.80
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Roman Legíň

54th • 9-5-0

93%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

6.7

Surp

3.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs PANAGIOTIS KOSTOGLOU (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Edison Yue (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Leon Schüßler (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs John Cooper (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Shin Inoue (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Adrian Słowiński (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Lucas Navarro (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nicolas Lazarides (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Szabolcs Egri (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Louis Guillot (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Carlos Carrero (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

93% (13/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (7.2 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.05
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.18
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.41
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R9	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.66
R10	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.61
R11	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.93
R14	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

simon diaz

56th • 9-5-0

93%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

6.9

Surp

3.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Bone (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hon-man Yau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Clay DeAngelis (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ilias Karamanis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Clements (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Antonio Kutter (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs João Zeni (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Estarlin Cruz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Ben Lux (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Maciej Janik (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Dominik Piatkowski (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Maciej Chmielewski (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

93% (13/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (7.5 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.10
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.18
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.30
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.47
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.53
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.63
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.77
R14	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kamil Rejman

59th • 9-5-0

100%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

6.8

Surp

3.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs André Kofmel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Newberry (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nico Schleier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Cass Emerson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Bernardo Cardoso (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Chanon Puttaree (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Christopher Reyes (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Evan Tanguy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Léo Dupraz (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (14/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (7.8 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.06
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.18
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.17
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.30
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R9	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.73
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.80
R13	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.89
R14	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Matthew Duggan

60th • 9-5-0

93%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

6.9

Surp

4.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Florian Schmidt (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Martin Holík (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Westmore (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marcus Archer (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Chanon Puttaree (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jonathan Sanchez (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Bernar Aganchyan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Birgir Hrafn Buason (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Mirko Macchia (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Ville Teräväinen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

93% (13/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (7.4 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.07
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.18
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.18
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R10	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.71
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.93
R14	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Ville Teräväinen

61st • 9-5-0

93%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

6.5

Surp

3.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Davide Ierardi (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ed Cardall (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs George Douglas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Noah Cagle (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Li (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Celso Alves Lima Neto (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Lucas Molho (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Fernando García-casarrubios (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Filipe Cunha Santos (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Clay DeAngelis (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Botond Szujó (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Tibor Csonka (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

93% (13/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (7.4 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.06
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.10
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.34
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.44
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.53
R10	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R11	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Louis Guillot

72nd • 8-6-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

6.8

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wiroon Juesathainrat (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cara Carter (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Raymond Su (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Winning (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Cass Emerson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Matthew Brown (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jorgen Fleussu (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Lucas RUZAFA (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Christopher Reyes (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Roman Legíň (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (14/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (7.8 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.06
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.20
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.27
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.53
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.63
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R14	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Steve Andrew

73rd • 8-6-0

86%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

6.7

Surp

3.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Dyson (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Johannes Janovsky (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Cohea (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gary Gold (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Christian Pelka (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Yahir Peñarrubia (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Matthew Kenworthy (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Richard Carr (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Ryan Rich (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Klas Bergholtz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Tibor Csonka (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Filipe Cunha Santos (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Antoan Yordanov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

86% (12/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (7.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.07
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.09
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.30
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R9	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.53
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R11	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.79
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R14	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Toni Savolainen

74th • 8-6-0

64%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

7.2

Surp

3.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Benedikt Sylvester (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs nino Zimmermann (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Darvydas Čepukaitis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Adrien Defarge (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Horne (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Michael Davies (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs kazuma kuwahara (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jakub Koenner (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Nicolas Lazarides (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Botond Szujó (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Daniel Collett (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Chanon Puttaree (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

64% (9/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

7.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.09
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.19
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.49
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.53
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.88
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R14	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Tibor Csonka

77th • 8-6-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

7.3

Surp

3.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Romain LIM KOUN (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zak Murray (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nico Schleier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Raj Parikh (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs PANAGIOTIS KOSTOGLOU (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Barrett Goss (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sophie Thorne (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Clay DeAngelis (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Christos Zisimos (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Steve Andrew (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Kristian Čurla (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Ville Teräväinen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (12/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (7.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

7.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.10
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.29
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.26
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.94
R11	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.71
R13	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R14	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jakub Koenner

85th • 7-7-0

93%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

7.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Mc Namara (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rasmus Møller (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs David Wadley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jasper de Riet (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Didier Deurloo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Dominik Piatkowski (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ilias Karamanis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Toni Savolainen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Antoan Yordanov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Ben Lux (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

R14

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

93% (13/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (7.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

7.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.07
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.18
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R7	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R12	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R14	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

John Cooper

dropped • 8-5-0

77%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

6.2

Surp

3.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stephen Eade (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marc Alexandre (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Karanjeet Singh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Maciej Janik (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Roman Legíň (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Botond Szujó (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Konstantinos Paltoglou (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Christos Zisimos (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Mário Abrantes (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

77% (10/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.06
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.13
R3	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.18
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.31
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.45
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.81
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.70
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Milosz Sankowski

dropped • 7-5-0

92%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

6.3

Surp

3.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Paulo Resende (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Oliver Gehrig (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bruno Cracco (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Adrian Quek (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Liam Holden (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Lorenzo Miele (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jonathan Sanchez (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Seiichi Yasuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Christos Zisimos (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.09
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.55
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.99
R10	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Robert Catling

dropped • 7-3-0

90%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.9

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Patrik Koller (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James LeResche (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Laura Wichert (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Shelly (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Lucas Navarro (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Léo Dupraz (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

90% (9/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.10
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.12
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.41
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.51
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R10	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Adrian Słowiński

dropped • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Connor Bryant (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stuart Turner (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs William Bodo (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Edward Catling (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Erik Elberfeld (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nuno Amaral (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Krzysztof Rybczyński (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Roman Legíň (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Einoras Laskis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.10
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.26
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.40
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.46
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.55
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.96

Bun Ar

dropped • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.7

Surp

3.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Erik Taylor (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs George Keys (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Manuel Wachouschek (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tom Barnaby-Pass (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Aðalsteinn Örn Ragnarsson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Hugo Platret (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs David Wadley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Rúben Martins (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Justin Fernandes (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.15
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.55
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.46
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.68
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Frederik Emil Hansen

dropped • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.8

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthias Niedertscheider (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Trevor Kerr (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Samuele Costantini (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Sanchez (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Aaron Eddy (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Alexander Teague (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Noah Hicks (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Gregory Patellis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.05
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.18
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.75
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Isaac Fogg

dropped • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.9

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Olga Sørensen (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 86:14

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rafał Liwerski (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Courtney MacIsaac (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michael de Kok (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Victor Reis (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ed Bracamontes (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Laura Wichert (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.02
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.40
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.91
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.65
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.74
R9	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Kyle Mullings

dropped • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jack Rhys-Burgess (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs May Made (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ewan Dajnak (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dan York (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Laura Wichert (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Patrick Steele (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Larissa Chow (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.06
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.43
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.55
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Leila Catton

dropped • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Konrad Weiss (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tomasz Żelazko (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kazuya Murakami (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Peng Joon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Shaker (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs GRIGORIOS KOUVOUSIS (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jonny Chapman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.09
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.13
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.37
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.55
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.59
R9	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Luigi Fontana

dropped • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luca Love (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Chirulescu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Toni Schwarze (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Péter Kökény (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Robert Szary (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Clay DeAngelis (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Sophie Thorne (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.09
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.37
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.25
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.91
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Naib Mobassir

dropped • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel VandenBurg (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Philippe Milot (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Callum Elcock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Estarlin Cruz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Rutkowski (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Nicholas Jackson (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.09
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.46
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.55
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.74
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Niklas Bengtsson

dropped • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Larissa Chow (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Friday (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Johannes Schorpp (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alan Bainbridge (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Josep Giné (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Philippe Milot (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ryan Newberry (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Carlos Lojo Bernabeu (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.09
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.14
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.46
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.60
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.83
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Osama MacDonald

dropped • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aleix Córdoba (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mykel Kramer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Noah Greenwood (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Léo Dupraz (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Feeney (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jake Lancaster (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Balint Herendi (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Bernar Aganchyan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.21
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.27
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.53
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.62
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.80
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.74
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Paul Crame

dropped • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Karl Naylor (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Markus Reichhart (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Simon MacDonald (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Patryk Kielichowski (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Federico Sirri (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Romain Werlen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Evan McTernan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jesse Härmälä (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.11
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.25
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R8	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.71
R9	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Paul White

dropped • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Julian Cappallo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Shane Ankers (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Josh Keys (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tom Evans (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nuno Paiva (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Alice Angell (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Matthias Niedertscheider (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Lancelot Errico (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Dominik Piatkowski (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.13
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.46
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.55
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.35
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Rafał Liwerski

dropped • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Isaac Fogg (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Tran (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jake Lancaster (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs René Rosenberg (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs kazuma kuwahara (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Benjamin Brüssau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Laura Wichert (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.34
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.74
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Sophie Thorne

dropped • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Duc Minh Tran (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Balint Herendi (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cody Williams (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lukasz Bigos (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jason Watkins (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tibor Csonka (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Luigi Fontana (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Law Wen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Tee Thebeau

dropped • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ed Bracamontes (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Liam Holden (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Botond Szujó (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nuno Amaral (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jerick Fomocod (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Schneider (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Lucas Bortolucci (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Bruno Cracco (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.09
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.30
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.35
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.67

Thomas Steinle

dropped • 6-3-0

78%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Markus Heimbeck (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tim Greenaway (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ronnie Fox (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Phillip martinez (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Matthew W (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Marcus Archer (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Samuel Young (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.09
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.45
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.55
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Łukasz Cichecki

dropped • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paddy Morgan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Wiroon Juesathainrat (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Paweł Kręcki (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs DJ Breithaupt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Reese Toomre (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Connor O'Sullivan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.18
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.30
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.46
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.60
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.70
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.32

Łukasz Gryziewicz

dropped • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.6

Surp

2.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Kaiser (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Deitrich Mohan (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adam Parker (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Emily Froese (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Philippe Milot (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Konstantinos Paltoglou (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ioannis Makrygiannis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Declan Patrick (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs George Keys (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.09
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.18
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R9	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Alex Smith

dropped • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

4.6

Surp

2.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Birkir Örn Sigurðsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kurt Vooys (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ricardo Nguyen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Laurent Michaud (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Declan Patrick (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mike Williams (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Chris Churchill (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Larissa Chow (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Charlie Fahey (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (5.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.18
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.30
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.41
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Grigorian Tigran

dropped • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrei Joghiu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matt Muus (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Laura Wichert (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tim McCarthy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Birgir Hrafn Buason (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Adam Ray (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Markus Jonsson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs George Keys (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs John Scharf (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.05
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.18
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.59
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.55
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.67

Ioannis Makrygiannis

dropped • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Laura Wichert (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paulo Resende (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mark Warren (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Afonso Fernandes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Manuel Wachouschek (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Łukasz Gryziewicz (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Philippe Milot (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Daniel Ferrara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.23
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.41
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Justin Fernandes

dropped • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.4

Surp

2.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Klas Bergholtz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dave Kerr (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Wintle (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Florian Grabenstein (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Antonio Kutter (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Lucas Izumi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Leonardo Pessôa (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Bun Ar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.37
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lancelot Errico

dropped • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matteo Brunori (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Connor O'Sullivan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Toby Beckham (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Maciej Janik (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nicolas Lazarides (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Paul White (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Anya North (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.11
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.29
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Law Wen

dropped • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Niels Rohrer (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Clark (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrik Koller (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ben McConnochie (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs PANAGIOTIS KOSTOGLOU (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Sophie Thorne (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.19
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.45
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.49
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.65
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Leonardo Pessôa

dropped • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.8

Surp

2.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Leonardo Poppa (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rui Carvalho (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Fernando García-casarrubios (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Juan Chacon (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Gustavo Cilleruelo (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Justin Fernandes (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jonathan YUSTE (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.15
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.18
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.57
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Lewis Foulkes

dropped • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maciej Gładysz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rhyan Bromell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Szabolcs Egri (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Antoan Yordanov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tess van Dartel (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Lotara Norris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Wouter Ouwehand (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Mirko Macchia (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Mykel Kramer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.09
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.34
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.91
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Linus Albat

dropped • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.4

Surp

2.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Victor Bousch (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Friis Nielsen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Collett (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ilian Baylon (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Gints Dreimanis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Marcin Pelzner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Hammer (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Aaron Taylor (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.07
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.46
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.65
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.18
R9	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Lucas Izumi

dropped • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Shaun Eaglesham (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Evan McTernan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maurice Philip (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rasmus Møller (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Edward Catling (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Fernandes (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Adrián Marín (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Luiz Bretas (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs David McAllan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.10
R2	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.50
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.80
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.45

Mario Cioffi

dropped • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Johannes Schorpp (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Ramirez givell (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 75:25

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Roberts (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Manuel Wachouschek (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Vasil Popov (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Mark Warren (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Ryan Jackson (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (5.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.09
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.55
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.55
R9	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.53

Patrick Steele

dropped • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brent Van de Staey (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Manu Van Driessche (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Phillip Manwaring (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Edison Yue (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dan Tripp (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kurt Vooys (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Kyle Mullings (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Alexander Teague (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.29
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.52
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.60
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.96

Peter Markovič

dropped • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Brouillet (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mike Knvs (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Antoan Yordanov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Evan McTernan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrei Sebastian Suciu (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Shelly (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Samuel Young (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Daniel Harwood (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.45
R4	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.36
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.65
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Philippe Milot

dropped • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maurice Philip (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs James Miller (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hon-man Yau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Łukasz Gryziewicz (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Niklas Bengtsson (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Aðalsteinn Örn Ragnarsson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ioannis Makrygiannis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Daniel Curry (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.07
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.15
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.90

Red Itärinne

dropped • 5-4-0

89%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.4

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Leon Schüßler (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathan Hills (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Curry (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matt Muus (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Erik Taylor (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Léo Dupraz (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Mickey Holmes (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jack Warren (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 86:14

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.23
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.73
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.19
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Simon Denning

dropped • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eduardo Melo (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Joergensen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michael Faelan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Florian Krainer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

85:15

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Olga Sørensen (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 86:14

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Daniel Folch (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Cody Williams (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (5.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.36
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.32
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.14
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Alex Munceanu

dropped • 4-5-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Baker (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Horne (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs John Christensen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Natasha Collins (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Rene Lorentsen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Federico Sirri (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs David Calf (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Simon Lüthi (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (4.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.62
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.42

Charlie Fahey

dropped • 4-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

4.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Fernando García-casarrubios (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Liam Blakeman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 86:14

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Edward Catling (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Charlie Herren (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Niklas Astner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Declan Patrick (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sebastian Piełudź (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Gregory Patellis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Alex Smith (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (5.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.05
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.37
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.46
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.73
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Christopher Higashi

dropped • 4-5-0

89%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Richard Carr (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs George Jones (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Natasha Collins (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thierry Bonard (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Adam Cowan (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs gabriel głowicki (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

85:15

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs damien herlin (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 86:14

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ilian Baylon (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Joe Fletcher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.30
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.17
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.80

Daniel Folch

dropped • 4-5-0

89%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

4.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Vittor Matiazo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Domonkos Kiss (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Johannes Klaus (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christian Jelle (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kae Remmer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ross Gauld (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Will lunnon (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Simon Denning (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Laurent Michaud (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (5.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.44
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.45
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.67

David Calf

dropped • 4-5-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

4.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Edgar Herrera Ramos (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jack Bradbury (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dimitris Melissinos (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Taylor Morrow (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Nico Grieco (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Benedikt Sylvester (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Alex Munceanu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Manuel Wachouschek (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.10
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.27
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.32
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Eduardo Melo

dropped • 4-5-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

4.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Simon Denning (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tommy Young (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chanon Puttaree (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Adrian Quek (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Adrian Fjell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs robin gasparini (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Niels Vos (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Alexander Heilling (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (4.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.59
R9	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Hon-man Yau

dropped • 4-5-0

78%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Owen Howdon (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs simon diaz (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Olga Sørensen (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 86:14

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Philippe Milot (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Eliot JOBE (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Karan Gill (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Alberto Hernández Martin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Mike Morelli (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (4.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.11
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.07
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.34
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Jason Watkins

dropped • 4-5-0

78%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

4.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Diorge Brognara (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tobias Reincke (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Asger Thomsen Brem (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Toby Beckham (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sophie Thorne (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Kindberg (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Gaál Benjamin (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Mario Donoso (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.18
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.43
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.89
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Jonathan YUSTE

dropped • 4-5-0

78%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

4.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrei Lazar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lucas Bortolucci (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Paul Farnell (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Birkir Örn Sigurðsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Akihiro Takano (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Darvydas Čepukaitis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Leonardo Pessôa (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.07
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.18
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.65
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.37
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Pat Eshghy

dropped • 4-5-0

89%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

4.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kilian Schellekens (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kyle Mullings (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Leonardo Pessôa (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Noah Dreckmann (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ruben Exposito (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ricardo Nguyen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kristian Čurla (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Marvin Heusinger (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Gilles Molina (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (5.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.06
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.30
R5	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.44
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Sergio Bravo Aranda

dropped • 4-5-0

89%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Jones (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maciej Chmielewski (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yi Jun Loh (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Davies (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Edmondo Mazzulli (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Aðalsteinn Örn Ragnarsson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Nastassja Baum (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Li (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Bruno Assis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.18
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.96

Bruno Vale Fernandes

dropped • 3-6-0

67%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Francesco Rossi (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Filipe Cunha Santos (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michael Bone (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Kindberg (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Leonardo Poppa (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Karl Naylor (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.60
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.48
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Ilian Baylon

dropped • 3-6-0

78%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Botond Szujó (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Will lunnon (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Shane Ankers (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Linus Albat (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Joseph Walley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Menion Croll (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs York kwok (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Christopher Higashi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.55
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Mantas Ptakauskas

dropped • 3-6-0

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

4.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Romane Dubost (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jack Rhys-Burgess (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Fischer (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Luiz Bretas (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Camron Lowe (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Christopher Chalk (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sarah Howes (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Thomas Farrow (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jose Mestanza (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.46
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.55
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Adrian Fjell

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Li (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matteo Brunori (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Dowling (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Brent Van de Staey (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Eduardo Melo (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Matthew W (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michele Maietta (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.38
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.77

Alessandro Bracci

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ed Kennan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bernardo José Alves (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicolas Papadopoulos (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Adam Ray (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Lucas Molho (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Emily Froese (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Giannis Koumidis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Dominic Blasius (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.17
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

David Chirulescu

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kae Remmer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luigi Fontana (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dayvid Kayal (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Russell Howse (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jack Bradbury (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Andrei Sebastian Suciu (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Martin Okruhlica (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.05
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.41
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.85
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.00
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Edison Yue

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John Wardan (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Roman Legíň (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Domonkos Kiss (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Patrick Steele (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ed Jones (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Xavier Aubert (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Christian Jelle (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.44
R7	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.67

Jean Luka Zorko

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Connan (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Darvydas Čepukaitis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Svavar Hinriksson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 75:25

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Romain Werlen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Declan Macewan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Rob Howe (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Daniel Curry (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.21
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.02
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.54
R8	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.90

Lori Vanderhulst

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Léo Dupraz (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tomasz Stanicki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jared Warden (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Nino Chimenti (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Błażej Gierszon (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Güntekin Koc (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.28
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.54
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

Lucas Molho

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joe Fletcher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Easton Douglas (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Finlay Shepherd (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs René Rosenberg (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alessandro Bracci (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Samuele Costantini (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ville Teräväinen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.10
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Matthew Horne

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Federico Sirri (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alex Munceanu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Sampson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Didier Deurloo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Carlos Cruz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Toni Savolainen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Robin Lesage (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michael MacLeod (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.30
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.70
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.96

Nicolas Papadopoulos

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rafael Boog (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Svavar Hinriksson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alessandro Bracci (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ian Fraser (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Noah Hicks (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Wojciech Andrusewicz (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Florian Grabenstein (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Johannes Schorpp (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.10
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.10
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.27
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.99
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.72
R8	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Richard Carr

dropped • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Higashi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Noah Cagle (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Fowley (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Karanjeet Singh (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kristian Čurla (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ilias Karamanis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Steve Andrew (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.29
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.50
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.44
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ania Grudnowska

dropped • 4-3-1

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Schneider (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Estelberger (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Vitalij Zeiser (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marc Schuba (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mike Williams (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

85:15

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jack Warren (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 86:14, favorite upset

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Joshua Myles Lim (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Esmond Heng (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.06
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Draw	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.39
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	85%	Loss	✓	0.86	-
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.80

Dayvid Kayal

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs George Douglas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Chirulescu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ji Timm Lee (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Renz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

85:15

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Victor Lenoble (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 86:14

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Andreas Björnsson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (5.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.06
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.17
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.16
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-

Mickey Holmes

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Navarro (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kate Dunstone (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nastassja Baum (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mason Taylor (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Paddy Morgan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Alexander Teague (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Red Itärinne (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Victor Lenoble (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 86:14

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.22

Oliver Kuhrt

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Bruner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Menion Croll (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Niels Rohrer (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Toni Schwarze (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Esmond Heng (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jonny Chapman (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Carlos Lojo Bernabeu (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Lotara Norris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.50
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Patryk Wasielewski

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Leia Asp (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sebastian Piełudź (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Theodosis Pafitis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Marcin Pelzner (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Błażej Gierszon (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Friedemann Schorpp (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.07
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.58
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.36

Paweł Romanowski

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs George Chew (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Dreckmann (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ella Brown (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joris Borkelmans (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jack Rhys-Burgess (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Easton Douglas (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Benjamin Fraser (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.39
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.44
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Phillip martinez

dropped • 4-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Patryk Kielichowski (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tomasz Stanicki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Steinle (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Michael MacLeod (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tom Kruijsen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Joe Fletcher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jonas Benzarti (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.11
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.60
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.70
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Sharif Shaaban

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ben McConnochie (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Koch (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tobias Reincke (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Richard Meyer (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Stephen Berlyant (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Vitalij Zeiser (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Rafael Boog (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Fernando Caprino (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.27
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.56
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.70
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Tsz Shing So

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luca Scherner (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Price (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Filipe Cunha Santos (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mikael GARCIA (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Niels Vos (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Paddy Morgan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Markus Heimbeck (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.64
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Tyhrone Bennett

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Roger Jr. (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tim McCarthy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Giulio Monaco (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jorgen Fleussu (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nick Butcher (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jose Alves (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.50
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Vulpe Razvan

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Frazer Eastman (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Karl Roche (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jurica Fejer (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Teague (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mark Henderson (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Carlos Carrero (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jose Maria Mellado Becerra (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.50
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.48
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

sean Burke

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Paul Carr (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Antoan Yordanov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Valentin Varga (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Carlos Carrero (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Benjamin Schneider (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Declan Patrick (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.08
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.34
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Matthew W

dropped • 3-5-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Melvin Valderrey (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Edgar Strogonov (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Botond Szujó (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Simon Lüthi (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Steinle (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Adrian Fjell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Sebastian Piełudź (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.17
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.26
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Paddy Morgan

dropped • 3-5-0

88%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Łukasz Cichecki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Reichhart (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Newberry (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jakub Szczotka (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mickey Holmes (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kae Remmer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tsz Shing So (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Romane Dubost (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.29
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

David Wadley

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Jenni (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hanno Lünser (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tom Kruijsen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jakub Koenner (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Celso Alves Lima Neto (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dimitris Melissinos (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Bun Ar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.80
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Duc Minh Tran

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sophie Thorne (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chris Templeman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Louis Glenn (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hamish Dean (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tom Ward (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Patrick Jud (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.44
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Federico Sirri

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Horne (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Goldfinger (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Carre (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Rich (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Paul Crame (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Alex Munceanu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Finlay Shepherd

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Simon MacDonald (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joel Gibbons (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michele Maietta (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Javier Kenyon-Reyero (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Mariano Rivero (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.19
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.44
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.32
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Jonathan Sanchez

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mikael Vedemar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gary Gold (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Frederik Emil Hansen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bruno Cracco (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Milosz Sankowski (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.10
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jordan Jalbert-Ross

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Robert Wernecke (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Shin Inoue (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Noah Dreckmann (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Roman Legíň (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alexander Heilling (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sophie Thorne (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.19
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.29
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.57
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Joshua Westbrook

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ivan Grimaldo (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zayne Johnson (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Josep Giné (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs kazuma kuwahara (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Oliver M (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Estarlin Cruz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.19
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.47
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.71
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

João Zeni

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexandros Modestou (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maciej Kawończyk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Renz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jerick Fomocod (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Szabolcs Egri (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs simon diaz (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.17
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.35
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Liam Holden

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Einoras Laskis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jesse Härmälä (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tee Thebeau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lorenzo Latino (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Milosz Sankowski (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.14
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.22
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Luis Felipe Bueno da Silva

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicolas BROSSE (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ross Gauld (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jerick Fomocod (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Feeney (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nguyen Giang (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.13
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.19
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.53
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Markus Reichhart

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ian Porter (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paul Crame (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rasmus Møller (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tomasz Żelazko (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joel Gibbons (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Antoan Yordanov (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.33
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Nathan Eastwood

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Connor Hetherington (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Maximilian Stabenow (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Robert Wernecke (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nastassja Baum (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Paweł Sosnowski (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Edgar Strogonov (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tom Gould (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.58
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.47
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.71
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.67

Thomas Dowling

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Wojciech Andrusewicz (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luiz Bretas (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Esmond Heng (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Adrian Fjell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alan Bainbridge (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Christos Zisimos (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Klas Bergholtz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.34
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.97
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Tom Kruijsen

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs kazuma kuwahara (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Miller (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Wadley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Spencer Lewis (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Phillip martinez (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs James Thourgood (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.13
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.73
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Henry Ellis

dropped • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luke Magnuson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Scott "HowlingMines" Mines (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Paul Goodchild (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Martin Holík (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Max Löhe (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.59
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Lisa-Marie Schulte

dropped • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Sharpes (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Walley (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joel Gibbons (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Cayne Wilbur (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Stuart Reeve (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tymoteusz Kliś (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Valentin Varga

dropped • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

3.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Murphy (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ji Timm Lee (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs sean Burke (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Steve Le (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Hammer (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andreas Björnsson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs gabriel głowicki (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.10
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.47
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

York kwok

dropped • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Edgar Strogonov (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs theofanis neofotistos (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Wojciech Andrusewicz (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lewis Chapman (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Pablo Miguel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jose Mestanza (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ilian Baylon (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.50
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andy Pham

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Lau (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs George Jones (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ernesto Silva (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs axilleas siskopoulos (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.64
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Asger Thomsen Brem

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adam Cowan (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Antonio Kutter (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Anastasios Kouvousis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michaele Teppa (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Sebastian Kleiner (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.10
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.39
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Christoph Greischberger

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hamish Dean (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Levi Kujawa-Seda (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Russell Howse (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Noah Dreckmann (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Shin Inoue (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.56
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Joel Gibbons

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maciej Szawica (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Finlay Shepherd (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Antonis Kazouris ()

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Markus Reichhart (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Alan Bainbridge (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.11
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Joshua Tavares

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Declan Macewan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tom Jones (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nuno Amaral (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Jackson (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Koch (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Erik Elberfeld (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.23
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.45
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Jude Fisher

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Pedro Carvalho (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tommy Young (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs theofanis neofotistos (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joe Fletcher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Einoras Laskis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.55
R5	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.67
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Kai Young Tan

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.5

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs James Miller (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christian Franco (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kelvin Tan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Maurice Philip (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Anthony Jacob (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.45
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.56
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Karan Gill

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rhyan Bromell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rafael Boog (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Declan Macewan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Ferrara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Christos Zisimos (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Hon-man Yau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.26
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.68
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.55
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lorenzo Miele

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maciej Chmielewski (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Martin Bergström (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Peng Joon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Victor Lenoble (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 86:14

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Samuel Young (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Milosz Sankowski (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.14
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lukasz Bigos

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Courtney MacIsaac (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vittor Matiazo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sophie Thorne (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Markus Heimbeck (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Mariano Rivero (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.69
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Maik Wiesen

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Richard Schröder (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cass Emerson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tess van Dartel (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tim Coates (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 82:18

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs David Yau (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.19
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Marcus Rosemin

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Russell (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Giannis Koumidis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Einoras Laskis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mykel Kramer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Thomas Farrow (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sam Tsafalas (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.48
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.69
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Oliver Gehrig

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Callum Elcock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Milosz Sankowski (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aðalsteinn Örn Ragnarsson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chris Brummett (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Keir Sweeney (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Robbert Valkeneers (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.62
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Paweł Sosnowski

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ruben Exposito (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Harry McAlpine (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cody Hodkinson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nathan Eastwood (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Vasil Popov (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.26
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.55
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Philip van Donselaar

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Leonardo Paixão Viana (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Connor Hetherington (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs nino Zimmermann (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.67
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.89
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Ran Sasaki

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jeppe Madsen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Niels Rohrer (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kai Le Phelps (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joe Mastowski (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Louis Glenn (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Xavier Aubert (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.62
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Rene Lorentsen

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Henry Wiesner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mario Donoso (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Fernando García-casarrubios (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Estarlin Cruz (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alex Munceanu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kurt Vooys (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.22
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Tom Ward

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tim Moser (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jack Bradbury (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Bone (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Trent Nguyen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nicolas Lazarides (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Duc Minh Tran (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.67
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.39
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tommy Young

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eduardo Melo (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jude Fisher (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alexander Heilling (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kazuya Murakami (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.69
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Ville Schalin

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marco Lettieri (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Stephen Eade (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marcus Karlsson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Péter Kökény (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.41
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.60
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.69
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Charlotte Odievre

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zak Mc Gowan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tony Gleeson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Narin Leelaporn (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Klas Bergholtz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.41
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Jacob Friis Nielsen

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maurício Portiolli Franco (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Linus Albat (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marco Casadio (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Jacob (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Fernandes (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ashley Southwood (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Joseph Walley

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ed Jones (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jose Alves (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ilian Baylon (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Thore Ladicke (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.10
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Matthias Verbeeck

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Phillip martinez (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cody Hodkinson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Diorge Brognara (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Federico Sirri (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Rafael Boog (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Marco Lettieri

dropped • 1-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Josep Giné (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ville Schalin (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Ferrara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nicolas BROSSE (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Elliott Chacksfield (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Theo Maggs (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Cayne Wilbur

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adrian Lee (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Max Löhe (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Stuart Clark (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Menion Croll (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.66
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ed Cardall

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David McAllan (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ville Teräväinen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Steven Leyva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mikael Vedemar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Baker (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.09
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.53
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Daniele Frattarelli

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yorick Schulte (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dave Margetson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Bortolucci (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kai Price-Goodfellow (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.18
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Danny Halstad

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Blaine Pascu (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Westmore (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brent Van de Staey (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Boyd Zeedzen (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Benedikt Sylvester (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.27
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.58
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

David Dyson

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Steve Andrew (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas G Jud (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Adam Cowan (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Stuart Reeve (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Josh Williamson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.37
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.57
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Felipe Rita

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dave Margetson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jorgen Fleussu (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Maximilian Stabenow (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 77:23

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Wojciech Andrusewicz (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.09
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.23
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Jake mccormack

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Sharpes (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lotara Norris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Stephen Berlyant (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Oliver M (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mirko Macchia (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.54
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Keir Sweeney

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rasmus Møller (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Harwood (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Spescha (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Robin Seichais (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Oliver Gehrig (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.33
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.36
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matteo Lista

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Laurent Michaud (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Russell (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dave Kerr (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rob Howe (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bryan Sweeney (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.49
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Rhyan Bromell

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Karan Gill (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lewis Foulkes (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Damon Harbinson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.61
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Timotheos Chrysanthou

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adrian Isaac (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ernesto Silva (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Tuck (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Benjamin Brüssau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.64
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Tomasz Stanicki

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Theo Maggs (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lori Vanderhulst (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Phillip martinez (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mikael Kullström (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Jason Kelly

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Marshall (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Frazer Eastman (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rhys Horlock (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Blaine Pascu (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.34

Kate Dunstone

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Josh Williamson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mickey Holmes (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Steve Margetson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Laureen Jib (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ashley Southwood (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.75
R5	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Oliver Wilson

dropped • 0-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Rutkowski (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Shai Edginton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Radu-Andrei Ispas (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Richard Schröder (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Johannes Klaus (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Lorenzo Latino

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs theofanis neofotistos (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrei Joghiu (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Liam Holden (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.34
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Aaron Dunford

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Natan Tomeo (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alberto Hernández Martin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Hicks (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Patryk Kielichowski (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Baldur Guðmundsson

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Louis Glenn (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Hempelmann (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jason Nakata (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joseph Taylor (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Domonkos Kiss

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Folch (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Edison Yue (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Błażej Gierszon (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Melissa Steinman

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonas Benzarti (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Erik Skinstad (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tim Coates (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Newberry (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.68
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	80%	Loss	✓	0.82	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Mikael Kullström

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hanno Lünser (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Darnell Dickerson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christian Bach (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tomasz Stanicki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	80%	Loss	✓	0.82	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mike Knvs

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Tuck (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Peter Markovič (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Didier Deurloo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Vasil Popov (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.20
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Patrick Mc Namara

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jakub Koenner (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Maurice Philip (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luca Love (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joseph White (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.60
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Rasmus Møller

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Keir Sweeney (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jakub Koenner (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Markus Reichhart (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Izumi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ryan Debling

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tim Moser (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Konrad Niva (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Diana Green (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Tom Evans

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nino Chimenti (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Paul White (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Teddy Gois

dropped • 0-4-0

100%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Krzysztof Rybczyński (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas CHAMPEROUX (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pedro Carvalho (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sarah Howes (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Florian Huepper

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mateusz Pachciarz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gaál Benjamin (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Florian Bouteyron (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Kane Wilson

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stuart Clark (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bruno Cracco (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ed Bracamontes (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Ryan Goldfinger

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Florian Grabenstein (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Federico Sirri (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Carlos Cruz (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Krists Feldmanis

dropped • 0-2-1

67%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Anthony Jacob (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Christopher Knight (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jordan Akers (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Brandon Barefoot

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs John Kitsos (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Chris Templeman

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Austin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Duc Minh Tran (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ruairidh Wasson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Christian Bach

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastian Piełudź (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christos Zisimos (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mikael Kullström (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Douglas Levy

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dominik Piatkowski (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ashley Southwood (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Enes Findik

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Duncan Macbeth (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Declan Macewan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mikael GARCIA (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

George Chew

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paweł Romanowski (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Van donkelaar (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joe Lunnon (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Jason Nakata

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tymoteusz Kliś (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ben Emmanuel (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Baldur Guðmundsson (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

John Christensen

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jared Warden (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ash Parkhouse-Pemberton (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Munceanu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Leonardo Paixão Viana

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Victor Reis (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Matthew Lovelace

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Shelly (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Carl Boyle (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Erik Taylor (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Wallace Pate

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Tran (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Heilling (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Sharpes (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Sam Ball

dropped • 1-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kelvin Tan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Markus Jonsson (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.96

James Watson

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Stephen Berlyant (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Ferrara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Stefan Bonk

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mario Donoso (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Einoras Laskis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.