Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
13 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 6-3-0
33%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.8
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lewis Chapman (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 62:38
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Felix Elias (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 71:29
Round 3: Win vs Ed Cardall (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Samuel Young (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Marvin Heusinger (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
20:80
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 19:81
20:80
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Ian Siczewicz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 19:81
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jose Raúl Megías Iglesias (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Tiago Polónio (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
33% (3/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Loss |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Loss |
| R8 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
dropped • 4-5-0
44%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
4.5
Surp
3.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Simon Lüthi (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jack Hutson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Gilles Molina (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nuno Paiva (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jesse Härmälä (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs York kwok (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Michael Faelan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Ismael Boulbaz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
Round 9: Win vs Mantas Ptakauskas (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R9 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
dropped • 4-5-0
44%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
4.5
Surp
1.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs David Baker (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 53:47
Round 2: Win vs Thomas Steinle (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Michael de Kok (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Gregory Patellis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 43:57
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Lucas RUZAFA (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs John Kitsos (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 43:57
Round 8: Loss vs Lewis Chapman (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Kai Le Phelps (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Loss |
| R9 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-6-0
33%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
4.3
Surp
1.2
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kyle Mullings (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
Round 2: Win vs Mantas Ptakauskas (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Theo Maggs (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Lucas Morrison (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Casey Knepley (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Paweł Romanowski (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Courtney MacIsaac (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Friedemann Schorpp (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
33% (3/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-6-0
78%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
4.4
Surp
1.5
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jack Warren (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs PANAGIOTIS KOSTOGLOU (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jordan Long (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 61:39
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Christian Pelka (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Edward Van-Gucci (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Manu Van Driessche (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Hugo Jobe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46
Round 8: Loss vs Karl Naylor (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Ismael Boulbaz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
78% (7/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (4.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
4.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 60% | Loss |
| R9 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
dropped • 5-3-0
25%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
4.3
Surp
3.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Balint Herendi (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 43:57
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)
Round 3: Win vs Alex Smith (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Niels Vos (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Gregory Patellis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 43:57
Round 6: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Nico Schleier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Peng Joon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Vincent Luong (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs João Zeni (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ross Gauld (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Krzysztof Rybczyński (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 19:81
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Lubos Vanicek (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Connor O'Sullivan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
2.8
Surp
0.7
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Christian Weißling (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 71:29
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Adrian Lee (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matt Muus (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 43:57
Round 4: Loss vs Tess van Dartel (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Karl Naylor (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Courtney MacIsaac (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs SEAN STELL (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Richard Meyer (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Baker (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tom Ward (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ed Jones (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
0.9
Surp
0.1
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Marc Mehlenbacher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 75:25
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Szabolcs Egri (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 19:81
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Morrison (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
0.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Marcus Karlsson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs George Douglas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 53:47
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Bruno Vale Fernandes (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.1
Surp
0.0
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sam Tsafalas (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 19:81
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jose Mestanza (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Christian Jelle (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Noah Cagle (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Paul White (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ilian Baylon (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.