Fai, Rising Rebellion
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 6-3-0
56%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
4.8
Surp
5.3
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Finn Macdonald (Unknown)
Round 2: Loss vs Leon Schüßler (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alice Angell (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Sebastian Piełudź (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 20:80
Round 6: Win vs Valentin Varga (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Connor Hetherington (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 41:59
Round 8: Win vs Dayvid Kayal (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Christian Drabusenigg (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.8 total deviation
Difficulty
5.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 20% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Win |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Win |
| R9 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 60% | Win |
dropped • 3-6-0
11%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jose Mestanza (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mara Faris (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Enzo Di Rosa (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 41:59
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Matthew W (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 25:75
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Adam Cowan (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Patrik Koller (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 39:61
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Wojciech Andrusewicz (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 29:71
25:75
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Alex Munceanu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
11% (1/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R9 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
0%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Xavier Aubert (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nicolas Papadopoulos (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 25:75
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Narin Leelaporn (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 25:75
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Friedemann Schorpp (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.6
Surp
1.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Dominic Blasius (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mario Cioffi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 25:75
Round 3: Win vs Andreas Nordeng (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jurica Fejer (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Narin Leelaporn (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Richard Truong (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 35:65
Round 3: Loss vs Lubos Vanicek (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jurij Di Carlo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.