Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 5-4-0
22%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
4.1
Surp
4.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Luke/Evelynn Poulter (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs GRIGORIOS KOUVOUSIS (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Adam Friday (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Dakota Rewoldt (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
Round 5: Win vs Martin Bergström (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
Round 6: Win vs Ania Grudnowska (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86, underdog victory
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Daja Todesco (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
15:85
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Red Itärinne (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Hanno Lünser (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
22% (2/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
4.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 15% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R8 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 15% | Loss |
| R9 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 45% | Win |
dropped • 3-6-0
22%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.1
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Erik Elberfeld (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Christian Byrnes (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Enzo Di Rosa (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 47:53
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Léo Dupraz (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 30:70
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ernesto Silva (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 30:70
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Elliott Chacksfield (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Laurent Michaud (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
Round 8: Win vs Johannes Klaus (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Javier Díez (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
22% (2/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 30% | Win |
| R9 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-6-0
11%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Damon Harbinson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
15:85
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Gary Gold (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Taylor Morrow (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56
15:85
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lorenzo Miele (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86
Round 5: Win vs Ben McConnochie (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
15:85
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Dayvid Kayal (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Manuel Wachouschek (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
15:85
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Mickey Holmes (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Max Löhe (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
11% (1/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 15% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 15% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 15% | Loss |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 15% | Loss |
| R9 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-6-0
11%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.9
Surp
3.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Chalk (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs theofanis neofotistos (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Paul Carr (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Fernando Caprino (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Marc Schuba (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56
15:85
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Christopher Higashi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86
Round 8: Win vs Aaron Heimbeck (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
11% (1/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 75% | Loss |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 15% | Loss |
| R8 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 35% | Win |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
dropped • 5-3-0
38%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
3.2
Surp
3.1
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Aaron Taylor (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Sarrington (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 36:64
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
Round 4: Win vs Kit Valentine (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Rúben Martins (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 36:64
Round 6: Win vs Pablo Miguel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs PANAGIOTIS KOSTOGLOU (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
75:25
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Manu Van Driessche (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 75% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
14%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.0
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Max Löhe (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Florian Grabenstein (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ryan Adshead (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56
Round 5: Win vs CHRISTOS KOSTAKIS (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Aaron Murphy (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-6-0
43%
Meta
-2.3
Perf
2.8
Surp
0.2
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Cedric SCHAACK (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Robert Szary (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66
Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Ramirez givell (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Szymon Piątek (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Stuart Reeve (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 47:53
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Paul Goodchild (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Layne Forrest (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
0%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.5
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Isaac Fogg (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86
Round 2: Win vs Mikael GARCIA (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Hon-man Yau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Romain Werlen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Marc Schuba (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56
15:85
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Simon Denning (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86
Meta Fit
0% (0/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tim Coates (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 56:44
15:85
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Charlie Fahey (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Hamish Dean (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 47:53
Round 4: Win vs Daniel VandenBurg (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 15% | Loss |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 35% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.