Calling: London - Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn (CC)

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tim Coates

dropped • 2-3-0

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Liam Blakeman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Cohea (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Melissa Steinman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Maik Wiesen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 18:82

15:85

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Florian Grabenstein (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 16:84

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (1.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.23
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	20%	Win	✗	0.82	1.48
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-

Darnell Dickerson

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mason Taylor (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 16:84

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mikael Kullström (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Kenworthy (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tanner Nguyen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	20%	Win	✗	0.82	1.23
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Mika Vainio

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 16:84

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gabriel Leeming (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 25:75

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hugo Jobe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.