Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Calling: London

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tim Coates

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Liam Blakeman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Cohea (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Melissa Steinman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Maik Wiesen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 18:82

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Florian Grabenstein (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	20%	Win	✗	0.82	1.48
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Darnell Dickerson

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mason Taylor (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mikael Kullström (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Kenworthy (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tanner Nguyen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	20%	Win	✗	0.82	1.23
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mika Vainio

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gabriel Leeming (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hugo Jobe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.