Calling: Kobe 2025 - Aurora, Shooting Star (CC)

Aurora, Shooting Star

66 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Hiroyuki Tansei

3rd • 11-3-0

100%

Meta

+3.2

Perf

6.4

Surp

4.9

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kento Goya (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Satoru Doumoto (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kazuki Itabashi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs yohei ohki (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs 岡本一朗 (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs David Yau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Hiroki Saito (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Keisuke Iwamura (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Pudding Tam (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Andy Kim (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs 岡西達也 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (14/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.2 Wins (7.8 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

6.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.03
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.21
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.13
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.30
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.47
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R10	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.67
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.93
R14	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Pudding Tam

3rd • 10-4-0

100%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

6.9

Surp

4.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs ChingHeng Lin (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yuta Maruo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs motohiro makigano (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chu Heng Eng (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs kei iikubo (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nick Butcher (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Akihiro Takano (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs yohei ohki (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Kenji Enomoto (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Justin Cu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Hiroyuki Tansei (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (14/14 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (7.6 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.07
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.33
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.41
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R9	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.53
R10	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.67
R11	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.79
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.77
R14	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Allen Lau

5th • 9-4-0

92%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

6.1

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Oh Oh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Takuya Yokoi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Steven Chen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jason Chua (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Neil Bautista (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tetsuhiro Murata (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Andy Kim (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs yohei ohki (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs 岡西達也 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

92% (12/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (7.0 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.10
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.23
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.31
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.32
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.46
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.67
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.31
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R13	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Andy Kim

5th • 9-4-0

77%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

6.5

Surp

3.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pang Chan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ian Chan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Yuuki Nada (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs 岡西達也 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Takahito Natsume (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs SHUNYA TAMURA (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Allen Lau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Daisuke Nakashima (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs yohei ohki (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Hiroyuki Tansei (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

77% (10/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.10
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.15
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.29
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.31
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.42
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.71
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.67
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.34
R11	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.61
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R13	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Justin Cu

10th • 9-3-0

92%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

5.4

Surp

4.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hiroki Miyoshi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rio I (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tetsuhiro Murata (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Law Wen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs 雄斗宮地 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ran Sasaki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Vincent Chau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs 北斗神原 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Gordon Koh Koh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Yuta Maruo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.06
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.28
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.55
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.49
R11	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Chu Heng Eng

16th • 9-3-0

83%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

5.6

Surp

5.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Deitrich Mohan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hiroshi Osada (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Darren Goh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Taiki Yamashita (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Terukazu Goshima (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Henry Leasure (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Lee Ming-Han (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs yuki ideue (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ian Chan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Colin Li (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Daisuke Nakashima (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

5.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.07
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.24
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.56
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.00
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R11	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R12	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.96

岡本一朗

28th • 8-3-1

100%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

6.1

Surp

3.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ayato Taki (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yang-Chia Chang (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yuto Suzuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Fee Sen Sei (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Yoshiki Inada (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Hiroyuki Tansei (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Draw vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Kaiser Wong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Pei-Tung Liao (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Daisuke Nakashima (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs RYO YAMADA (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (12/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.07
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.43
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Draw	✓	0.67	-
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Hiroki Saito

17th • 8-4-0

83%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

5.8

Surp

3.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ken Sawada (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Norio Koide (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kaiser Wong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Keisuke Oki (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs motohiro makigano (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Keung Li (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Yudai Shimizu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Okamoto Natsuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Hiroyuki Tansei (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs haruka sonoda (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs KOHEI TAKANO (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.06
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.55
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.80
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Yudai Shimizu

24th • 8-4-0

83%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

6.1

Surp

4.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hui Ryan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Anthony Hlaing (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Deitrich Mohan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Terukazu Goshima (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kentaro Tanaka (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Pei-Tung Liao (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Hiroki Saito (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs 啓明宮村 (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs RYO YAMADA (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Law Wen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Marshal Meador (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs yohei ohki (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.34
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.35
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.69
R11	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.83
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Gordon Koh Koh

29th • 8-4-0

92%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

5.6

Surp

3.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs shoma yamamura (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Miyaji Kotaro (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs 高柳賢一 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs GAICHI YAMADA (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Colin Li (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Lee Ming-Han (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Justin Cu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Okamoto Natsuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs 啓明宮村 (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.08
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.10
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.39
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.69
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R12	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Lee Ming-Han

30th • 8-4-0

83%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

6.0

Surp

3.8

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Koruri Takahashi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marshal Meador (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Shuto Ushiro (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs 周万濵口 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Chu Heng Eng (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Keisuke Iwamura (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Darren Goh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Yuta Maruo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Oh Oh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (6.3 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.04
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.33
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R9	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R11	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

David Yau

31st • 8-4-0

75%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

6.2

Surp

4.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Justin Law (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Soya Okuda (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ran Sasaki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yoshiki Inada (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs 中嶋海成 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs 周万濵口 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Hiroyuki Tansei (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Yuta Maruo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs motohiro makigano (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs SHUNYA TAMURA (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nick Butcher (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jack Tang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.07
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.14
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.28
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.10
R11	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.34

Yusuke Asama

35th • 8-4-0

92%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

5.8

Surp

4.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 新田幸弘 (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ken Sawada (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nakara Juntavong (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Shogo Hamashima (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Taiki Bamba (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Yukihiko Ikeda (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Akihiro Takano (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs masaru okuda (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Connor Leverton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs 北斗神原 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Marshal Meador (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.10
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.26
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.78
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R10	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.78
R11	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.76
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.90

Colin Li

40th • 7-5-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

5.8

Surp

3.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yuki Tanaka (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 祥弘橋本 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs To Cheng (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs 岡西達也 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs YUJIE MAO (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jack Tang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Connor Leverton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs 北斗神原 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jo Yana (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Chu Heng Eng (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs SHUNYA TAMURA (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.07
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.55
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.62
R9	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R11	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

TSUNAKI SAWAI

42nd • 7-5-0

67%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

6.0

Surp

3.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Takaaki Sano (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs kei iikubo (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs fujiwara yudai (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs SHUNYA TAMURA (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Ericsson Marquez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ryusei Tani (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kazuki Itabashi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs 啓明宮村 (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Daisuke Nakashima (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Shou Miyahara (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.10
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.55
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R10	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.73
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

RYO YAMADA

45th • 7-5-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

5.8

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Henry Leasure (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ken Sawada (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kento Goya (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Xu Zhenzhe (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs yuta morita (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs 秀太栗原 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Nicholas Wong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Yudai Shimizu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jacky Ho (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Ian Chan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs 岡本一朗 (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (12/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.11
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.38
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.48
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.75
R11	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.92
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

motohiro makigano

47th • 7-5-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

6.3

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Taiki Koike (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jin Han Toh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Pudding Tam (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs 啓明宮村 (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Hiroki Saito (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Okamoto Natsuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Keisuke Iwamura (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs David Yau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs yuki ideue (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Shuto Ushiro (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jacky Ho (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.45
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R9	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.12
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.90

Oh Oh

49th • 6-6-0

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

6.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Allen Lau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs ryotaro takashima (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs KOHEI TAKANO (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Neil Bautista (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs To Cheng (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Matthew Ericsson Marquez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Pei-Tung Liao (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs 根本正尭 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs masaru okuda (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Lee Ming-Han (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.56
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.72
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R11	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ian Chan

dropped • 6-5-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

5.2

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs KENSUKE BESSHO (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andy Kim (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Wong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tomoya Ohta (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Hiroki Goto (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs sotaro takagishi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs 根本正尭 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Shou Miyahara (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Miyaji Kotaro (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Chu Heng Eng (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs RYO YAMADA (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (11/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (6.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.08
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.30
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.38
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.32
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.61
R8	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.58
R9	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Pei-Tung Liao

dropped • 6-5-0

82%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

5.3

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Darren Goh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yohei Kurihara (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ran Sasaki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Yudai Shimizu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Neil Bautista (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Oh Oh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs 岡本一朗 (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs SHUNYA TAMURA (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

82% (9/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.12
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.37
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.30
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.45
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.64
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.73
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Darren Goh

dropped • 6-4-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pei-Tung Liao (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chu Heng Eng (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Phitchaya Tungpavitaya (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Carlo Luis Santos (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jin Han Toh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Yusuke Mizuno (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Kohei Okuda (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Shou Miyahara (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Lee Ming-Han (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (10/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.18
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.70
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R9	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.72
R10	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

CYK Lionel

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs katsuya kawai (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 匡俊和氣 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs shoma yamamura (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Yang-Chia Chang (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Elliot Lucas Marcell Tan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kenji Enomoto (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs 北斗神原 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.27
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.39
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Fee Sen Sei

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Takuya Yokoi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Liang Hsi Ho (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs 岡本一朗 (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Connor Leverton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mathias W (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.10
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.29
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.57
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.17
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Jin Han Toh

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs yuta morita (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs motohiro makigano (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs HIROAKI KUZUHARA (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Soya Okuda (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs masaru okuda (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Darren Goh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.13
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.57
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.47
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.32

Juntaek Lim

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs タカユキアサヒナ (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs KENSUKE BESSHO (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs 正人田中 (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Camden Keener (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Pang Chan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.44
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.64
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Kazuki Itabashi

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs YuDi Chen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Darren Goh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hiroyuki Tansei (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Shuto Ushiro (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs ヒロノブタニグチ (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Xincheng Hou (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.48
R6	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.88
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nicholas Wong

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 理央鎌田 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yang Li Siaw (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ian Chan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs YuDi Chen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Takahito Natsume (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jason Chua (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs RYO YAMADA (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.11
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.71
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sakaki Masuda

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Carlo Luis Santos (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs yohei ohki (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Moster Rex (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Shou Miyahara (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs takahiro nishimura (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs masaru okuda (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.32
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.71
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Teoh Juwern

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Elton Siang (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs takahiro nishimura (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Akihiro Takano (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs 秀太栗原 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Yusuke Miki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Louis Glenn (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Satsuki Itagaki (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.13
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.80
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Vincent Chau

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs yutaro yamada (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chan Lion (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yuichi Oshima (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Satsuki Itagaki (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Akihiro Takano (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kento Inagaki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Justin Cu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.47
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Yoshiaki Okamoto

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yusuke Asama (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ran Sasaki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Frank Hung (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Allen Lau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs 大貴浅海 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.29
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.42
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

YuDi Chen

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rachel Tan Xing Hui (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Makoto Takahashi (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Wong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Soya Okuda (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mark Phillips (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs 창건 곽 (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.26
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.77
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Yusuke Miki

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kunihiko Date (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Phitchaya Tungpavitaya (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marshal Meador (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs シンヤカワグチ (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Teoh Juwern (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs RYOTO KAGAWA (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 86:14

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Shou Miyahara (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.13
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.41
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.18
R7	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

masataka shibata

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hiroki Goto (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cheng-Chung Tang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rachel Tan Xing Hui (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rio I (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Miyaji Kotaro (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs ryotaro takashima (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.47
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.82
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

shota kajiro

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryo Onishi (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Okabe Keisuke (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 86:14

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Risa Shioji (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Takamasa Kamei (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs RYO OZAKI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Norio Koide (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.06
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.55
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

yutaro yamada

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Vincent Chau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jenna Schoettker (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Elliot Lucas Marcell Tan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Henry Leasure (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mitsuki Sakata (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kazuya Murakami (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs yuki ideue (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.19
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.94
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.57
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

タカユキアサヒナ

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Juntaek Lim (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yuto Mori (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs York kwok (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Louis Glenn (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Chan Lion (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jo Yana (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.29
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.38
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.67
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

広朗大澤

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 荒金優太 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sei Inui (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacky Ho (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Liang Hsi Ho (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs 北斗神原 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Takamasa Kamei (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs yuta morita (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.58
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.82
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.90

Risa Shioji

dropped • 3-3-1

71%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kazuaki Fujimoto (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs yuki ideue (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs shota kajiro (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Katsuya Hirai (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs タカヤスギモト (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs syun suzuki (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs tada hidenobu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.38
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Draw	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.57
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.67

KAZUMA SUZUKI

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tsuyoshi Kaji (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs humiaki hattori (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Keung Li (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs 理央鎌田 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs May Hayden (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Mathias W (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.41
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.71
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Kento Inagaki

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs PANG CHEN (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Moster Rex (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryusei Tani (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs 荒金優太 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Vincent Chau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Yuusuke Kiguchi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.69
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Norio Koide

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Atsushi Taichi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hiroki Saito (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Shinmura Kazuya (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Okamoto Natsuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs shota kajiro (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kan Ting JoeB (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.71
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ran Sasaki

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs YE MINSHENG (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Yau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Atsushi Taichi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Pei-Tung Liao (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Cu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kazuaki Fujimoto (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Steven Chen

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yukihiko Ikeda (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nakara Juntavong (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Allen Lau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sei Inui (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Pedro Marinho (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs 大貴浅海 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.80
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

Suh Jaeyong

dropped • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacky Ho (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kaoru Kishimoto (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Miyaji Kotaro (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kaiser Tan (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Marei Oshiro (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs 了亮足立 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Xavier McLean (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.71
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Hiroshi Noguchi

dropped • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 창건 곽 (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Camden Keener (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mamoru Iguchi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Shigeru Masuda (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs 野原由一 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs jiazhou 吳 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs FUNG CC (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.38
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.82
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Katsuya Hirai

dropped • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 周万濵口 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 永井泰洋 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Risa Shioji (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mathias W (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs 高柳賢一 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Johnny Zen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.17
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Taiki Koike

dropped • 2-5-0

100%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs motohiro makigano (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs YAT TUNG (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Okamoto Natsuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs 北斗神原 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs jiazhou 吳 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Koruri Takahashi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Frank Hung (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.38
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Yuki Matsumoto

dropped • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yuichi Oshima (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Carlo Luis Santos (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cheng-Chung Tang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mamoru Iguchi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs yuta morita (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Masaaki Yamanobe (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.48
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Bun Ar

dropped • 3-2-1

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tomohisa OBASE (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs FUNG CC (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jacky Ho (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Draw vs Hui Ryan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Draw	✓	0.54	-

Joel Guzman

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Terukazu Goshima (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs hiroshi kanaya (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs GAICHI YAMADA (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Peng Joon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

和佳倉田

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Shou Miyahara (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hongkai Guo (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs York kwok (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs 荒金優太 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kaiser Wong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs 祥弘橋本 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.13
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.64
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Hiroshi Takahashi

dropped • 1-5-0

83%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kaiser Wong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs tomohiro tani (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs kazuma terui (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs 野原由一 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs FUNG CC (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Carlo Luis Santos

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sakaki Masuda (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Takuya Yokoi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Motoki Soezima (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Darren Goh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.40
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.47
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Elliot Lucas Marcell Tan

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hongkai Guo (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Motoki Soezima (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs yutaro yamada (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.23
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Roderick So

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs KOHEI TAKANO (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gyuwon Yoon (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jo Yana (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mamoru Iguchi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.23
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.53
R5	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

To Cheng

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mamoru Iguchi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Shuto Ushiro (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Colin Li (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs RYOSUKE NAKAMURA (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Oh Oh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.13
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.49
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

YE MINSHENG

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ran Sasaki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Panu Avakul (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs 高柳賢一 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs tomohiro tani (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Yuta Maruo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.25
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.66
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Yang-Chia Chang

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Evanking Chiu (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs 岡本一朗 (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs FUNG CC (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Pang Chan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.19
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.56
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

黎哉今井

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yang Li Siaw (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 77:23

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs York kwok (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yoshiki Inada (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Keisuke Iwamura (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kan Ting JoeB (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.08
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.27
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kaoru Kishimoto

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Taiki Bamba (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Suh Jaeyong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs 野原由一 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.02
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Tsuyoshi Kaji

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Moster Rex (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sei Inui (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Masaaki Yamanobe (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Xu Zhenzhe

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rio I (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marei Oshiro (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryoko Kitajima (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs RYO YAMADA (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.93
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

ChingHeng Lin

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ayato Taki (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.55
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Moster Rex

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tsuyoshi Kaji (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kento Inagaki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sakaki Masuda (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

YAT TUNG

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tetsuhiro Murata (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Taiki Koike (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mathias W (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.