Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
12th • 9-3-0
42%
Meta
+4.0
Perf
5.6
Surp
6.4
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Marei Oshiro (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 81:19
Round 2: Win vs Sakaki Masuda (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Matthew Ericsson Marquez (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Hiroyuki Tansei (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs 啓明 宮村 (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 71:29
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs masaru okuda (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 54:46
Round 7: Win vs Keisuke Oki (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
Round 8: Win vs Pudding Tam (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
25:75
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Allen Lau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
25:75
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Andy Kim (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
Round 12: Win vs Yudai Shimizu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
Meta Fit
42% (5/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+4.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
5.6 total deviation
Difficulty
6.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Win |
| R8 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Win |
| R9 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R10 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R12 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Win |
dropped • 4-2-1
43%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
2.6
Surp
3.1
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Rachel Tan Xing Hui (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Connor Leverton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 28:72
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 창건 곽 (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Draw vs Peng Joon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs 了亮 足立 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs 大貴 浅海 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
Round 7: Win vs Kento Inagaki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Draw |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Win |
dropped • 2-4-1
29%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.8
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Pedro Marinho (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 28:72
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Yusuke Miki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
Round 3: Win vs Anthony Hlaing (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Darren Goh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
Round 5: Loss vs Chris Chee Shi Feng (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Frank Hung (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Koruri Takahashi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Draw |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-6-0
43%
Meta
-2.2
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.1
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Lee Ming-Han (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ryoko Kitajima (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 82:18
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Satsuki Itagaki (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
Round 4: Loss vs yuta morita (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Yohei Kurihara (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Taiki Koike (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Phitchaya Tungpavitaya (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yoshiki Inada (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs ryo inoue (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 82:18
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ryusei Tani (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 39:61
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kunihiko Date (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Harpreet Singh Dhillon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Saori TOYOIZUMI (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Teoh Juwern (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Keisuke Iwamura (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 28:72
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Takumi Watanabe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 82:18
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Sakaki Masuda (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.9
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Hiroyuki Tansei (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs 雄斗 宮地 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs RYO YAMADA (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Gyuwon Yoon (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.