Riptide, Lurker of the Deep at Calling: Kobe 2025

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Marei Oshiro

dropped • 3-3-1

71%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs yohei ohki (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Xu Zhenzhe (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Shou Miyahara (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs FUNG CC (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Suh Jaeyong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sei Inui (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Mark Phillips (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 78:22

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.33
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.84
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.36

Masaaki Yamanobe

dropped • 3-3-1

14%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nakara Juntavong (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs sotaro takagishi (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs masaru okuda (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tsuyoshi Kaji (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ken Sawada (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 38:62

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Draw	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.67
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.17

Kaiser Tan

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs 조 윤재 (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Satoshi Kitazume (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Takamasa Kamei (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Suh Jaeyong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs yuki ideue (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.94
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

PANG CHEN

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kento Inagaki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Suzuki Takahiro (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paul Johnson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 12:88

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Johnny Zen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Peng Joon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	15%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.