Arakni, Marionette at Calling: Kobe 2025
Arakni, Marionette
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
25th • 8-3-1
33%
Meta
+3.3
Perf
5.7
Surp
4.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Jason Chua (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs HIROAKI KUZUHARA (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 51:49
Round 3: Win vs Kento Inagaki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Connor Leverton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tetsuhiro Murata (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 67:33
Round 6: Win vs motohiro makigano (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Draw vs 岡本 一朗 (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs KOHEI TAKANO (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 51:49
25:75
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs 岡西 達也 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Justin Cu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
25:75
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs yohei ohki (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73
Round 12: Win vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
Meta Fit
33% (4/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.7 total deviation
Difficulty
4.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Draw |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R10 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R12 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
dropped • 4-2-1
71%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.0
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Panu Avakul (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 63:37
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Masaaki Yamanobe (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 55:45
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Iada Caio (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs syun suzuki (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34
Round 5: Win vs Takamasa Kamei (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ian Chan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Atsushi Taichi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 67:33
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 55% | Draw |
| R3 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.1
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jenna Schoettker (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Xincheng Hou (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 70:30
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Okamoto Natsuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Chu Heng Eng (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Deitrich Mohan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.8
Surp
1.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Wong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ged Felipe Santos (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
Round 4: Loss vs Xincheng Hou (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
Round 5: Win vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs 北斗 神原 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Hui Ryan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 70% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
43%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs タカヤ スギモト (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Paul Johnson (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Shogo Takayama (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Frank Hung (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Yoshiaki Okamoto (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Yuusuke Kiguchi (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Steven Chen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-6-0
29%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.9
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs 北斗 神原 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Roderick So (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Hiroyuki Yamamoto (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kento Goya (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs 匡俊 和氣 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Anthony Hlaing (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs 了亮 足立 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.5
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Prajogo Atmaja (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs タカヤ スギモト (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kenji Enomoto (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nick Butcher (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Hangjune "Shu" Cho (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-1
75%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs 中嶋 海成 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Katsuya Hirai (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Pedro Marinho (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Hlaing (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Draw |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
25%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs RYO OZAKI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Elliot Lucas Marcell Tan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 了亮 足立 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Carlo Luis Santos (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.