Prism, Awakener of Sol
13 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
13th • 9-3-0
83%
Meta
+2.5
Perf
5.4
Surp
4.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Roderick So (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs RYOSUKE NAKAMURA (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Oh Oh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs 根本 正尭 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs SHUNYA TAMURA (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 36:64
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Kaiser Wong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Okamoto Natsuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Hiroki Saito (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
Round 12: Win vs Keisuke Oki (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Meta Fit
83% (10/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
5.4 total deviation
Difficulty
4.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R9 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Loss |
| R11 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Win |
33rd • 8-3-1
67%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
5.1
Surp
3.4
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs 新田 幸弘 (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs To Cheng (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
Round 3: Loss vs Lee Ming-Han (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kazuki Itabashi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs 祥弘 橋本 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
Round 6: Win vs Jacky Ho (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Law Wen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs kazuma terui (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Yoshiki Inada (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Draw vs Akihiro Takano (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 36:64
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs motohiro makigano (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
70:30
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Jo Yana (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 68:32
Meta Fit
67% (8/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.1 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Draw |
| R11 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 70% | Win |
32nd • 8-4-0
75%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
6.2
Surp
3.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Hiroyuki Yamamoto (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs 北斗 神原 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kan Ting JoeB (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 68:32
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs KOHEI TAKANO (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Henry Leasure (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
Round 7: Loss vs Andy Kim (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Round 8: Loss vs Jo Yana (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Tetsuhiro Murata (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59
Round 10: Loss vs David Yau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Pei-Tung Liao (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Colin Li (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
75% (9/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
6.2 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 70% | Loss |
| R9 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R10 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R11 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
dropped • 4-6-0
80%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
5.2
Surp
1.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Katsuya Hirai (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Keisuke Iwamura (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34
Round 3: Win vs Law Wen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 4: Loss vs Lee Ming-Han (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs haruka sonoda (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
Round 6: Loss vs David Yau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Round 7: Loss vs Kohei Okuda (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Yoshiki Inada (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50
Round 9: Loss vs Connor Leverton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Shou Miyahara (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
80% (8/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (5.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
5.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Loss |
| R10 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yu Heng Chew (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 42:58
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs masataka shibata (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 中嶋 海成 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
Round 5: Win vs katsuya kawai (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Chris Chee Shi Feng (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Nick Butcher (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Shogo Takayama (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tetsuhiro Murata (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Darin Key (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 61:39
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kento Inagaki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
Round 5: Loss vs Kenji Enomoto (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
Round 6: Loss vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Round 7: Win vs Jason Chua (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
3.3
Surp
0.8
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ikumi Miyao (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs 和田 海里 (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 68:32
Round 3: Loss vs Fee Sen Sei (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs tada hidenobu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Shou Miyahara (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62
Round 6: Loss vs Oh Oh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Round 7: Loss vs Jin Han Toh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
3.9
Surp
1.6
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
Round 2: Win vs Shogo Takayama (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 3: Loss vs Atsushi Taichi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
Round 4: Win vs Mark Phillips (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 5: Loss vs yutaro yamada (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Yuuki Nada (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 68:32
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs 조 윤재 (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
33%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs ヒロノブ タニグチ (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48
Round 2: Win vs 高柳 賢一 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 岡西 達也 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 36:64
Round 4: Win vs hironobu watanabe (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 5: Loss vs Colin Li (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Yuta Maruo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
80%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs 奨己 中川 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45
Round 3: Loss vs Jin Han Toh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Hangjune "Shu" Cho (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 19:81
Round 5: Loss vs Suzuki Takahiro (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.2
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Soya Okuda (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61
Round 2: Win vs 野原 由一 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Terukazu Goshima (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Yuki Tanaka (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 20% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
25%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Iada Caio (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Takumi Watanabe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs masahiro onoe (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Sei Inui (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
0.8
Surp
0.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs hironobu watanabe (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Shou Miyahara (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
0% (0/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.