Prism, Awakener of Sol at Calling: Kobe 2025
Prism, Awakener of Sol
13 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
13th • 9-3-0
83%
Meta
+2.4
Perf
5.1
Surp
4.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Roderick So (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs RYOSUKE NAKAMURA (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Oh Oh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs 根本 正尭 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs SHUNYA TAMURA (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Kaiser Wong (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
65:35
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Okamoto Natsuki (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 67:33
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Hiroki Saito (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
Round 12: Win vs Keisuke Oki (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Meta Fit
83% (10/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
5.1 total deviation
Difficulty
4.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Loss |
| R11 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Win |
33rd • 8-3-1
83%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
4.9
Surp
3.1
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs 新田 幸弘 (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs To Cheng (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
Round 3: Loss vs Lee Ming-Han (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kazuki Itabashi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs 祥弘 橋本 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jacky Ho (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Law Wen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs kazuma terui (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Yoshiki Inada (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Draw vs Akihiro Takano (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs motohiro makigano (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
70:30
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Jo Yana (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 72:28
Meta Fit
83% (10/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
4.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R9 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Draw |
| R11 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 70% | Win |
32nd • 8-4-0
83%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
6.4
Surp
4.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hiroyuki Yamamoto (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47
Round 2: Win vs 北斗 神原 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kan Ting JoeB (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 72:28
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs KOHEI TAKANO (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Henry Leasure (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
Round 7: Loss vs Andy Kim (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Round 8: Loss vs Jo Yana (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
Round 9: Win vs Tetsuhiro Murata (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 14:86, underdog victory
Round 10: Loss vs David Yau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Pei-Tung Liao (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Colin Li (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
83% (10/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
6.4 total deviation
Difficulty
4.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 70% | Loss |
| R9 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 15% | Win |
| R10 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R11 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R12 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
dropped • 4-6-0
80%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
5.1
Surp
1.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Katsuya Hirai (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Keisuke Iwamura (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34
Round 3: Win vs Law Wen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 4: Loss vs Lee Ming-Han (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs haruka sonoda (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
Round 6: Loss vs David Yau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Round 7: Loss vs Kohei Okuda (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Yoshiki Inada (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52
Round 9: Loss vs Connor Leverton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Shou Miyahara (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
80% (8/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
5.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Loss |
| R10 | Dash I/O | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yu Heng Chew (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs masataka shibata (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 中嶋 海成 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
Round 5: Win vs katsuya kawai (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Chris Chee Shi Feng (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Nick Butcher (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Shogo Takayama (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47
15:85
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tetsuhiro Murata (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 14:86
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Darin Key (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kento Inagaki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
Round 5: Loss vs Kenji Enomoto (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
Round 6: Loss vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Round 7: Win vs Jason Chua (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 15% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
3.1
Surp
0.7
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ikumi Miyao (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs 和田 海里 (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 72:28
Round 3: Loss vs Fee Sen Sei (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs tada hidenobu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Shou Miyahara (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68
Round 6: Loss vs Oh Oh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Round 7: Loss vs Jin Han Toh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.2
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Shogo Takayama (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47
Round 3: Loss vs Atsushi Taichi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mark Phillips (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47
Round 5: Loss vs yutaro yamada (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Yuuki Nada (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 72:28
15:85
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs 조 윤재 (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 14:86
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs ヒロノブ タニグチ (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs 高柳 賢一 (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 岡西 達也 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71
Round 4: Win vs hironobu watanabe (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 5: Loss vs Colin Li (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Yuta Maruo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
80%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.2
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs 奨己 中川 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nova Chan (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
Round 3: Loss vs Jin Han Toh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
15:85
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Hangjune "Shu" Cho (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 17:83
Round 5: Loss vs Suzuki Takahiro (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 15% | Loss |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 75% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Soya Okuda (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61
Round 2: Win vs 野原 由一 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Terukazu Goshima (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Yuki Tanaka (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 15% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Iada Caio (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
15:85
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Takumi Watanabe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 14:86
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs masahiro onoe (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Sei Inui (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 15% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
0.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs hironobu watanabe (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Shou Miyahara (Dash I/O) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
0% (0/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
0.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 30% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.