Dorinthea Ironsong at Calling: Kobe 2025
Dorinthea Ironsong
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 6-4-0
10%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
5.1
Surp
3.3
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nick Butcher (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 23:77
Round 2: Win vs kenta iwasaki (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Taiki Koike (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
Round 4: Win vs Taiki Yamashita (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Norio Koide (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Connor Leverton (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs motohiro makigano (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Hiroki Saito (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs KOHEI TAKANO (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
10% (1/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.1 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
0%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Takahito Natsume (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs 啓明 宮村 (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
Round 3: Win vs RYOSUKE NAKAMURA (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Marshal Meador (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 45:55
Round 5: Win vs Xincheng Hou (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Yoshiki Mizutani (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 30:70
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Miyaji Kotaro (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
0% (0/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-1
29%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs masataka shibata (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Yukihiko Ikeda (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nils Klaper (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ian Chan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Suzuki Takahiro (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 39:61
Round 7: Win vs katsuya kawai (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Draw |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Win |
dropped • 2-3-0
20%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Joshua Sim (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs 岡本 一朗 (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Hui Ryan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 45:55
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 23:77
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Peng Joon (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory
15:85
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 16:84
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Keung Li (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 16:84
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs yuki ideue (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (0.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 15% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs RYOSUKE NAKAMURA (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 39:61
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Neil Bautista (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs 奨己 中川 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Hiroki Goto (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Xu Zhenzhe (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Justin Cu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kentaro Tanaka (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 23:77
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs masataka shibata (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daisuke Nakashima (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 30:70
Round 2: Loss vs Kaiser Tan (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Round 3: Win vs Ikumi Miyao (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Chris Chee Shi Feng (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.6
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs 啓明 宮村 (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Hiroshi Takahashi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Taiki Bamba (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 23:77
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs YE MINSHENG (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.