Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at Calling: Kobe 2025

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yoshiki Inada

dropped • 5-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

4.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Darin Key (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs KOTA SANJO (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs 黎哉今井 (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs David Yau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs 岡本一朗 (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Marshal Meador (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs 周万濵口 (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Shuto Ushiro (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.06
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.15
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.33
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.43
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.85
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Xincheng Hou

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gene Brumby (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Taiki Yamashita (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs 理央鎌田 (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs tomoya kitagawa (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ken Sawada (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.08
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.39
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.99
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Terukazu Goshima

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joel Guzman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yuto Mori (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs hiromitsu nohara (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yudai Shimizu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Gene Brumby (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Chu Heng Eng (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.49
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Liang Hsi Ho

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Neil Bautista (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Fee Sen Sei (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Takahito Natsume (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs 広朗大澤 (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

RICARDO DIAZ

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Akihiro Takano (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Takaaki Sano (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Suzuki Takahiro (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Fritz Chua

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Law Wen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.