Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at Calling: Kobe 2025

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

48th • 7-5-0

50%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

6.3

Surp

5.4

Diff

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hiroki Miyoshi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs 雄斗宮地 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs RYOTO KAGAWA (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Hayate Nakamura (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 48:52

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs 和田海里 (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Camden Keener (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 48:52

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs 根本正尭 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 30:70

Jarl Vetreiði

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jack Tang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Tetsuhiro Murata (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

20:80

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs 北斗神原 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (6/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.3 total deviation

Difficulty

5.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.24
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.37
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.45
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.55
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.62
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R11	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Win	✗	0.81	2.37

dropped • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.5

Diff

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Xincheng Hou (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 33:67

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs 了亮足立 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mark Phillips (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 48:52

Jarl Vetreiði

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jack Tang (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Terukazu Goshima (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 33:67

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Satoru Doumoto (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs 雄斗宮地 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Win	✗	0.81	0.68
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.46
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.36
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Takumi Watanabe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs katsuya kawai (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kunihiko Date (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 48:52

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs kouji hamada (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs 根本正尭 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 30:70

Aurora, Shooting Star

15:85

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Yusuke Miki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Hayate Nakamura (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.46
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

dropped • 1-3-0

0%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yuuki Nada (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

Aurora, Shooting Star

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs shota kajiro (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86

Kassai of the Golden Sand

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yang Li Siaw (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Hiroki Miyoshi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.99
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.