Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: Kobe 2025
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
52nd • 6-6-0
50%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
5.4
Surp
3.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Andy Kim (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Atsushi Taichi (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jenna Schoettker (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34
Round 4: Win vs Shinmura Kazuya (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Yang-Chia Chang (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs tada hidenobu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Juntaek Lim (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Marshal Meador (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
30:70
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs 北斗 神原 (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71
Round 11: Win vs Tetsuhiro Murata (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory
25:75
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Kohei Okuda (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
50% (6/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R10 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R11 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 20% | Win |
| R12 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 4-2-1
57%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.2
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Sei Inui (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs KENSUKE BESSHO (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs YAT TUNG (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Hiroyuki Yamamoto (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Katsuya Hirai (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
Round 6: Loss vs Fee Sen Sei (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Draw |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.7
Surp
2.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Yusuke Mizuno (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs 秀太 栗原 (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Soya Okuda (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs HIROAKI KUZUHARA (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 83:17
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Teddy Tai (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Yukihiko Ikeda (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 85% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.4
Surp
3.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Risa Shioji (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Henry Leasure (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Yuuki Nada (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs humiaki hattori (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
Round 5: Win vs FUNG CC (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
Round 6: Win vs hironobu watanabe (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ran Sasaki (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Win |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.4
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Yuto Mori (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kunihiko Date (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Taiki Yamashita (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Law Wen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ken Sawada (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Daisuke Nakashima (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.6
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Panu Avakul (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs PANG CHEN (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Chan Lion (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Hayate Nakamura (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Katsuya Hirai (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.4
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yuta Maruo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71
Round 2: Loss vs hiromitsu nohara (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset
Round 3: Loss vs Kaoru Kishimoto (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Hiroshi Takahashi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Hiroshi Noguchi (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs ヒロノブ タニグチ (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 85% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ged Felipe Santos (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Johnny Zen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 3: Loss vs Pei-Tung Liao (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kaoru Kishimoto (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs tada hidenobu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Keisuke Iwamura (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-1
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.9
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Chu Heng Eng (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Akihiro Takano (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71
Round 3: Loss vs Yudai Shimizu (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tomohisa OBASE (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Draw vs hironobu watanabe (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Taiki Yamashita (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Draw |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.4
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Elliot Lucas Marcell Tan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs 和佳 倉田 (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ryosuke Urase (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kentaro Tanaka (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Yukihiko Ikeda (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.