Aurora, Shooting Star at Battle Hardened: Toronto 2025

Aurora, Shooting Star

19 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sunny Yang

21st • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

4.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Spencer Pritchett (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Steele (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Penny Schankula (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kegan Allen (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jonah Mosher (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ethan Raymond (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Gladman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.29
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.22
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.67
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.77
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.08
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jacob Gladman

30th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Yeo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Aliasgar Dedanwala (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Aidan Barsony (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan Lemire (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Yu Zhou (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brayden Pritchard (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Sunny Yang (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.17
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.33
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.77
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Peter Buddensiek

33rd • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Louis-Philippe Bouchard (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Shahan Ahmed (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Gladman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Corey Watson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 81:19

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kris Mayor (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Conor Grant (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Philip Dickinson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.11
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.15
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.68
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Aaron Williams

39th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mark Williamson (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bernard Pritchett (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maxim Villeneuve (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 42:58

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hunter Platt (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Connie Barnett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs William Luna (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Noah Martin (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jonathan Lemire (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.28
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.77
R7	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Ryan Leveiller

44th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tsubasa Ueda (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Shayne Glover (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aliasgar Dedanwala (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Deanna Tennant (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Barrett Goss (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ethan Raymond (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Timothy Chow (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Robert Alessi (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.53
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.93
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Alex Tan

45th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Atkin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marco 'Smash' Doucette (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jason Thai (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Derek Chiu (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Denver D'sa (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kris Mayor (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs James Wray (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.32
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.82
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.74
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ben Quantrell

56th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Raine Karan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Burns (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hugo Bry (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Eric Cherniavski (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nicolas Bouffard (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ian Schulte (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jordan Raposo (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Mike Morelli (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.33
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.74
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jaber Hye

61st • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sean Tsivian (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Lajoie (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Constantine Rice (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Paul Ludwig (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Branden NoLongerAnEmail (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ethan Lee (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Luke Martin (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.34
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.00
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Charles-Antoine Chabot Léveillé

80th • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ian Weese (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chris Borecky (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daryan Simon (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nicholas Carrano (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Deanna Tennant (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jonah Mosher (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Eric Bastelak (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.07
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.53
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.90
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Alexander Zacchigna-moxey

83rd • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dien Tran (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alex Kane (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Turcotte (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs westley nottingham (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Roger Fejdasz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Paul Ludwig (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jenan Wise (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Julian Flury (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.71
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Kaden Currins

88th • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Niko Bonnay (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Jones (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hen H (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dan Kotlewski (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs David Burns (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Spencer Pritchett (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Dien Tran (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ignacio Garcia Perez (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.50
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.88
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ignacio Garcia Perez

98th • 3-5-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Larouche (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonah Mosher (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Johnny Lam (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs shawn Hill (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ian Schulte (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Marco 'Smash' Doucette (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jonathan Lourenco (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Kaden Currins (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Eric Lajoie

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel McLean (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jaber Hye (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Muus (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs cedrik pinault (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Brayden Pritchard (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Patrick Larouche (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ryan Lagace (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.08
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.37
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.64
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kevin Thang

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Branden NoLongerAnEmail (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ben Olsen (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Robert (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs James Wray (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Eric Jones (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.61
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

John Miranda

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bernard Pritchett (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chris Weidinger (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs James Wray (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mark Williamson (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rei Chua-Alamag (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.33

westley nottingham

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Wray (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Schoof (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Weidinger (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alexander Zacchigna-moxey (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Louis-Philippe Bouchard (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Johnny Lam

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.1

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs CAIO PRIMO (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 80:20

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ignacio Garcia Perez (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Spencer Pritchett (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.08
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Mark Williamson

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Williams (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Robert Alessi (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eric George (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs John Miranda (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Quentin Wilson

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Clark (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Edward Pudim (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jackson Blackman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Marcin Duda (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.45
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.