Battle Hardened: Toronto 2025 - Oscilio, Constella Intelligence (CC)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sam Titizian

51st • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Edward Doyle (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Abbas Dedanwala (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Noah Clark (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Lemire (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sean Fox (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Adam Schoof (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ian Schulte (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Shayne Glover (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.16
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.32
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.48
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.78
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.92

Patrick Steele

103rd • 3-5-0

50%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nghia Tran (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 23:77

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Julian Flury (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sunny Yang (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Lewis (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Cubi Nguyen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Anthony Dang (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Marco 'Smash' Doucette (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ethan Lee (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.46
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.91
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Austin Ryan

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Harrison Smith (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matt Muus (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eric Holmes (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bea Budnik (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Laforest-Harvey (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.26
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.48
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Gabriel Harvey

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Isabelle Nolet (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tsubasa Ueda (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 23:77

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Elizabeth Waldberg (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Lourenco (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 43:57

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jordan Meyer (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.08
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Amelia Russell

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs James Warburton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kegan Allen (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Deanna Tennant (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.