Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Battle Hardened: Toronto 2025
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
11 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
19th • 6-2-0
12%
Meta
+3.1
Perf
4.3
Surp
5.0
Diff
Round 1: Win vs William Luna (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs JORDAN BEANGE (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 24:76
Round 3: Win vs Roger Fejdasz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Raine Karan (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 53:47
Round 5: Win vs Alex Girard (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Kegan Allen (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62
Round 7: Win vs Jake mccormack (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 8: Win vs Evan Herndon (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Meta Fit
12% (1/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
5.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Win |
41st • 5-3-0
25%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.7
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Luke Martin (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Noah Clark (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
Round 3: Win vs Matthew Siuda (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Farah Alteen-Brooks (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ignacio Garcia Perez (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ben Quantrell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Sam Titizian (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
25:75
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Marcin Duda (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
46th • 5-3-0
12%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
4.1
Surp
3.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Jenan Wise (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Farnsworth (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Philippe Thai (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
Round 4: Win vs Trenton McBride (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Robert Alessi (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Chris Jones (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62
Round 8: Win vs John Wilton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Meta Fit
12% (1/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Win |
55th • 5-3-0
25%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
3.9
Surp
4.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Aidan Hrynkiw (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Round 2: Win vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Aaron Williams (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Noah Clark (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
Round 7: Win vs Courtney MacIsaac (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
Round 8: Win vs Mei Yang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Olympia, Prized Fighter | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Win |
| R8 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Win |
59th • 5-3-0
25%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
3.7
Surp
3.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Bea Budnik (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs B Hilton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Eric George (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Brody Lewis (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs James Wray (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
Round 7: Win vs Julian Flury (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Charles-Antoine Chabot Léveillé (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
66th • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.7
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lincoln Hodgins (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Devon Wong (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mitchell Sleeman (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19
Round 4: Win vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 5: Win vs Paul Ludwig (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 6: Loss vs Ryan Leveiller (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Round 7: Loss vs Sunny Yang (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Cubi Nguyen (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
104th • 3-5-0
0%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Denver D'sa (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Philip Dickinson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Lagace (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 30:70
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Patrick Steele (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
Round 5: Win vs Matthew Siuda (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jenan Wise (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Sacha Fonseca (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jordan Raposo (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
0% (0/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
14%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.4
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alex Tan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
Round 2: Win vs Michael Feng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kris Mayor (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58
Round 4: Win vs Kevin Constantineau (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Chris Borecky (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 22:78
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Krishan Patel (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs William Luna (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 20% | Loss |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
0%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Adam Schoof (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mei Yang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ethan Lee (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Sacha Fonseca (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
25%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Shayne Glover (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jenan Wise (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 27:73
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jonah Mosher (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jordan Raposo (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.2
Surp
1.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michael Chato (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Lagace (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 30:70
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.