Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at Battle Hardened: Toronto 2025
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
63rd • 5-3-0
25%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
3.8
Surp
3.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs John Wilton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Donghee Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Turcotte (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 37:63
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Gabriel Harvey (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Hope (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Andrew Sciulli (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 75:25
Round 7: Win vs Ignacio Garcia Perez (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
Round 8: Win vs Timothy Chow (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 30% | Win |
| R8 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 35% | Win |
76th • 4-4-0
0%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
4.1
Surp
2.9
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Robert Alessi (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Ouellet (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 42:58
Round 3: Win vs Michael McKeon (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Abbas Dedanwala (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Corey Watson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 42:58
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Timothy Chow (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 37:63
Round 7: Win vs Hugo Bry (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs William Luna (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
0% (0/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 45% | Loss |
95th • 3-5-0
25%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.1
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Charles-Antoine Chabot Léveillé (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 28:72
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Michel Corvino (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Antonio Malo (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 57:43
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Turcotte (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 37:63
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Joe Fonseca (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Alex Girard (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 37:63
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs B Hilton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Millie Marcotte (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
112th • 2-4-2
38%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Connie Barnett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Shane Thompson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Robert Alessi (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Zac Doke (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Millie Marcotte (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jackson Blackman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Draw vs Nicolas Corral (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Draw vs Michael McKeon (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Draw |
| R8 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Draw |
dropped • 0-6-0
33%
Meta
-2.6
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs B Hilton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs CAIO PRIMO (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 46:54
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Quentin Wilson (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 28:72
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Marc Levy (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Hen H (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Mariusz Korlacki (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.7
Surp
1.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Eric Lajoie (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 28:72
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Hope (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Carrano (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Raymond (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michael McKeon (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ken Renshaw (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jordan Meyer (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.