Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at Battle Hardened: Toronto 2025

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jonathan Lourenco

63rd • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.8

Diff

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John Wilton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Donghee Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

Viserai, Rune Blood

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Turcotte (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gabriel Harvey (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Hope (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50

Prism, Awakener of Sol

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Sciulli (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 57:43

Aurora, Shooting Star

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ignacio Garcia Perez (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

Viserai, Rune Blood

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Timothy Chow (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.61
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.37
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.24

Jonathan Farnsworth

76th • 4-4-0

25%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.0

Diff

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Robert Alessi (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Ouellet (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 25:75

Nuu, Alluring Desire

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael McKeon (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Abbas Dedanwala (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Corey Watson (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Viserai, Rune Blood

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Timothy Chow (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

Viserai, Rune Blood

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Hugo Bry (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs William Luna (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.66
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.13
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.09
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

95th • 3-5-0

38%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

Aurora, Shooting Star

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Charles-Antoine Chabot Léveillé (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michel Corvino (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Antonio Malo (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 79:21

Viserai, Rune Blood

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Turcotte (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Joe Fonseca (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

Viserai, Rune Blood

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Alex Girard (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 42:58

Dash I/O

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs B Hilton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

Dash I/O

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Millie Marcotte (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.13
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.57
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R8	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Mariusz Korlacki

112th • 2-4-2

62%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Connie Barnett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

Jarl Vetreiði

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Shane Thompson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Robert Alessi (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zac Doke (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

Dash I/O

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Millie Marcotte (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jackson Blackman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Nuu, Alluring Desire

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Draw vs Nicolas Corral (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70

Nuu, Alluring Desire

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Draw vs Michael McKeon (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Draw	✗	0.30	-
R8	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Draw	✗	0.30	-

Jackson Blackman

dropped • 0-6-0

50%

Meta

-2.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

Dash I/O

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs B Hilton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs CAIO PRIMO (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Aurora, Shooting Star

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Quentin Wilson (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66

Jarl Vetreiði

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Marc Levy (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Dorinthea Ironsong

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Hen H (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 33:67

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Mariusz Korlacki (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

Aurora, Shooting Star

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Lajoie (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 34:66

Kassai of the Golden Sand

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Hope (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Carrano (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Raymond (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.98
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

Nuu, Alluring Desire

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael McKeon (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 30:70

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ken Renshaw (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jordan Meyer (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.