Jarl Vetreiði at Battle Hardened: Toronto 2025
Jarl Vetreiði
4 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
115th • 1-6-1
50%
Meta
-2.2
Perf
3.2
Surp
0.8
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 18:82
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mariusz Korlacki (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Laflin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
10:90
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Carrano (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 8:92
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nicolas Corral (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs None (Unknown)
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Draw vs Michael McKeon (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Sky Umesha (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 10% | Loss |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Draw |
| R8 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
100%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
0.7
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Akhir Alibhai (Unknown)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Sean Fox (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Adam Burkitt (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Chris Matos (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Alexander Zacchigna-moxey (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 55:45
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Aidan Hrynkiw (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Hen H (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Olympia, Prized Fighter | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-1
83%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs John Miranda (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Williams (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 55:45
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs David Stolze (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Sciulli (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs David Trinh (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 20:80
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Sacha Fonseca (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Draw |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 20% | Loss |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Eric Holmes (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Makowski (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daryan Simon (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jackson Blackman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 50% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.