Battle Hardened: Toronto 2025 - Jarl Vetreiði (CC)

Jarl Vetreiði

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Shane Thompson

115th • 1-6-1

38%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mariusz Korlacki (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Laflin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 34:66

5:95

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Carrano (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 4:96

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nicolas Corral (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs None (Unknown)

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Draw vs Michael McKeon (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Sky Umesha (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	5%	Loss	✗	0.04	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Draw	✗	0.36	-
R8	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Roger Fejdasz

dropped • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

3.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Akhir Alibhai (Unknown)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sean Fox (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Burkitt (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chris Matos (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alexander Zacchigna-moxey (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Aidan Hrynkiw (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Hen H (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.50
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Bernard Pritchett

dropped • 1-4-1

67%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John Miranda (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Williams (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs David Stolze (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 70:30

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Sciulli (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs David Trinh (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 34:66

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sacha Fonseca (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.12
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	70%	Draw	✓	0.70	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Marc Levy

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Holmes (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Makowski (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daryan Simon (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jackson Blackman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.