Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at Battle Hardened: Toronto 2025
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
90th • 4-3-1
50%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.2
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ashelin Gadal (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Metallo (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 25:75
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs David Stolze (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Leveiller (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Draw vs Denver D'sa (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 25:75
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Sky Umesha (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Eric George (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 25% | Draw |
| R7 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
65th • 4-4-0
25%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.9
Surp
2.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joe Fonseca (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Johnathan Carrillo (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 25:75
Round 3: Win vs Riley Thomas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
Round 4: Win vs Niko Bonnay (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ben Quantrell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Matt Muus (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
Round 7: Loss vs Ben Olsen (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
25:75
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Alex Girard (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
25% (2/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 25% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Loss |
| R8 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 25% | Loss |
87th • 4-4-0
62%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.8
Surp
3.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs JORDAN BEANGE (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Laforest-Harvey (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Edward Doyle (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ethan Lee (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Michel Corvino (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
Round 6: Win vs Jonathan Raymond (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Mei Yang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Zac Doke (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Win |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
102nd • 3-4-1
75%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.4
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 25:75
Round 2: Loss vs Istvan Szilak (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alex Tan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Hen H (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 76:24
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Dan Kotlewski (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jordan Meyer (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Draw vs Aidan Hrynkiw (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Matthew Siuda (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Olympia, Prized Fighter | 50% | Draw |
| R8 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
100th • 3-5-0
38%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jibril Jeewanjee (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 25:75
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs William Luna (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nicolas Corral (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44
Round 4: Win vs Riley Thomas (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Lagace (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Patrick Steele (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Brandon Turcotte (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 25:75
25:75
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Hugo Bry (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 25% | Loss |
| R8 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-5-0
100%
Meta
-2.6
Perf
3.1
Surp
0.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brian South (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Eric Williamson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Rheal Doyle (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Emma Carrillo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 76:24
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Deanna Tennant (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Yu Huan Lin (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Marc Levy (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Aidan Barsony (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 25:75
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Austin Ryan (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Benjamin Laflin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs William Luna (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.7
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Yu Zhou (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Marc Levy (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Eric Williamson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.