Battle Hardened: Toronto 2025 - Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn (CC)

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kevin Isabelle Nolet

38th • 5-3-0

Meta

+2.9

Perf

4.1

Surp

4.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Harvey (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58

10:90

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Timothy Chow (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 10:90, underdog victory

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 24:76

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michael Turcotte (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 25:75

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mikail Khan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Mike Morelli (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

10:90

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 10:90

Meta Fit

0% (0/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.16
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	10%	Win	✗	0.90	0.83
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.79
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.94
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Win	✗	0.76	1.80
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-

Sky Umesha

108th • 3-5-0

12%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hen H (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Larouche (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 24:76

10:90

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kegan Allen (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 10:90

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs John Wilton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 25:75

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rheal Doyle (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

10:90

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Hugo Bry (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 10:90

15:85

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 14:86

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Shane Thompson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

Meta Fit

12% (1/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.16
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.45
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.73

David Stolze

dropped • 1-3-2

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonah Mosher (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Trenton McBride (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 25:75

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Bernard Pritchett (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 30:70

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 14:86

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Eric George (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Siuda (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

0% (0/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.33
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Draw	✗	0.30	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Draw	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.