Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Battle Hardened: Toronto 2025

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kevin Isabelle Nolet

38th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

4.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Harvey (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Timothy Chow (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 14:86

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michael Turcotte (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jake mccormack (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mikail Khan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

15:85

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Mike Morelli (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 14:86, underdog victory

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.79
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	15%	Win	✗	0.86	2.46
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sky Umesha

108th • 3-5-0

75%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hen H (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Larouche (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 14:86

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kegan Allen (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs John Wilton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rheal Doyle (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Hugo Bry (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Shane Thompson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

David Stolze

dropped • 1-3-2

33%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonah Mosher (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Trenton McBride (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Bernard Pritchett (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Eric George (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 33:67

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Siuda (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	20%	Win	✗	0.80	0.39
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Draw	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.