Dorinthea Ironsong at Battle Hardened: Toronto 2025
Dorinthea Ironsong
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
13th • 6-2-0
50%
Meta
+2.5
Perf
3.7
Surp
3.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Nicolas Corral (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ryan Lewis (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Lemire (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 20:80
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ben Olsen (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs shawn Hill (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 6: Win vs Victor Mercado (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jimmy Niro Demers (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
42nd • 5-3-0
38%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.7
Surp
2.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Levstein (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59
Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Gladman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ryan Leveiller (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kegan Allen (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs B Hilton (Dash I/O) - Expected: 69:31
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Luke Martin (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59
Round 7: Win vs Nghia Tran (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
20:80
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Noah Clark (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 20:80
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 20% | Loss |
106th • 3-5-0
62%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sky Umesha (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Turcotte (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59
Round 3: Loss vs Kaden Currins (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jason Thai (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jackson Blackman (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 67:33
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Istvan Szilak (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Roger Fejdasz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
20:80
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Donghee Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 20:80
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
71%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.4
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brayden Pritchard (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Levstein (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59
Round 3: Loss vs Rei Chua-Alamag (Dash I/O) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Din Kaushansky (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Le (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Bernard Pritchett (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Ryan Lewis (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Marco 'Smash' Doucette (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Simon Cheng (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs JORDAN BEANGE (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ignacio Garcia Perez (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Philip Dickinson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Marcin Duda (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.5
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kevin Thang (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs cedrik pinault (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Conor Grant (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 20:80
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Chris Weidinger (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Constantineau (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58
Round 6: Loss vs Jaber Hye (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Michel Corvino (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs James Warburton (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Mikail Khan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47
Round 4: Loss vs Sunny Yang (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Courtney MacIsaac (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 20:80
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
50%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sean Fox (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Eric Cherniavski (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Le (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michael WA Parente (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.