Battle Hardened: Toronto 2025 - Prism, Awakener of Sol (CC)

Prism, Awakener of Sol

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Andrew Sciulli

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mike Morelli (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kris Mayor (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs cedrik pinault (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bernard Pritchett (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Zac Doke (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 39:61

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan Lourenco (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.10
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.43
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Mitchell Sleeman

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.1

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Austin Blackman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Martin (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ethan Raymond (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 19:81

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs William Luna (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.10
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Matthew Dilks

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sunny Yang (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mikail Khan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eric Cherniavski (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.