Prism, Awakener of Sol at Battle Hardened: Toronto 2025

Prism, Awakener of Sol

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Andrew Sciulli

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mike Morelli (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 71:29

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kris Mayor (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 31:69

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs cedrik pinault (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bernard Pritchett (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Zac Doke (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 31:69

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan Lourenco (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.08
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Mitchell Sleeman

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.1

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Austin Blackman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 79:21

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Martin (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ethan Raymond (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 14:86

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs William Luna (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.07
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Matthew Dilks

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sunny Yang (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mikail Khan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eric Cherniavski (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.