Battle Hardened - Pro Tour: Baltimore - Rhinar (Blitz)

Rhinar

39 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Peter Hong

15th • 7-2-0

33%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

4.5

Surp

4.1

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

35:65

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Oldhim) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Oswald (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Matlack (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Majin Bae (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

70:30

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Steven Caraher (Prism) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Ferrara (Prism) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Rob Catton (Kano) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Anthony Pham (Kano) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.35
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.53
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.88
R6	Blitz	Prism	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.35
R7	Blitz	Prism	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.41
R8	Blitz	Kano	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R9	Blitz	Kano	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.44

Kevin Goodkin

19th • 7-2-0

44%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

4.8

Surp

4.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Darius Hambleton (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Bellotti (Kano) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs SPENCER BIELEWICZ (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Lorenz (Kano) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Josef Mendez (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Jacob Krebs (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Paulo Fernandes (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Cooper Templeton (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

70:30

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Daniel Ferrara (Prism) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Kano	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.50
R4	Blitz	Kano	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.64
R5	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.06
R7	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.23
R8	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Blitz	Prism	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.53

Sean Davis

48th • 6-3-0

56%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

4.7

Surp

2.9

Diff

45:55

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Kerch (Dash) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Remington Aalbers (Kano) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Santianna (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Austin Redington (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

70:30

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Fred Bird (Prism) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

70:30

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Prism) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Chad Emerick (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.13
R2	Blitz	Kano	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.32
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.53
R4	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Prism	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.35
R7	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R8	Blitz	Prism	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R9	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Chad Emerick

91st • 5-4-0

33%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

5.1

Surp

4.5

Diff

35:65

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Erika Forslöf (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Marissa Boyd (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Leo Shea (Prism) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

35:65

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Ovas Siddiqui (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Remington Aalbers (Kano) - Expected: 37:63

30:70

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Patrick Nelson (Chane) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Matt Mills (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Charles Simmons (Chane) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Sean Davis (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Blitz	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.28
R3	Blitz	Prism	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R4	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.70
R5	Blitz	Kano	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R6	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.17
R7	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.56
R9	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Benjamin Wagoner

95th • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.0

Diff

35:65

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Nathan Gardner (Kano) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Cameron Whitesell (Dash) - Expected: 45:55

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Brown (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

70:30

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Dave Cordeiro (Prism) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Korovesi (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

70:30

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Skyler Lewis (Prism) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Joshua Koslosky (Bravo) - Expected: 47:53

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Jason Cole (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kano	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	Blitz	Dash	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Prism	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R5	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Prism	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.35
R7	Blitz	Bravo	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.86
R8	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dexter Phan

117th • 4-5-0

11%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Travis Woodward (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

35:65

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Blake Godenzi (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

70:30

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Michael Riddle (Prism) - Expected: 69:31

30:70

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Charles Simmons (Chane) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

35:65

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Madison Theriault (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

40:60

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Kevin Canales (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

30:70

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Nathan Borecki (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

45:55

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Tyler Kerch (Dash) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

11% (1/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.34
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.53
R4	Blitz	Prism	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.24
R5	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.97
R6	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	Blitz	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R8	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R9	Blitz	Dash	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Kyler Dustin

126th • 4-5-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Lee Conner (Uzuri) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Haukur Thor Buason (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

70:30

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Rachel Webb (Prism) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Prism) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

40:60

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Christopher Higashi (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

70:30

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Tyler Wolford (Prism) - Expected: 69:31

30:70

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Zdeněk Matura (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Prism	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.24
R5	Blitz	Prism	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R6	Blitz	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R8	Blitz	Prism	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.47
R9	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Haukur Thor Buason

130th • 4-5-0

44%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

5.2

Surp

3.2

Diff

35:65

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Andrews (Oldhim) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Kyler Dustin (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Dustin Schutz (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

35:65

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

30:70

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Dakota Cook (Chane) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Manny Beatty (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Leo Shea (Prism) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

35:65

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs SPENCER BIELEWICZ (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs William Renninger (Oldhim) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.18
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.67
R5	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.97
R6	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Prism	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R8	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.35
R9	Blitz	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Aiden Dee

132nd • 4-5-0

44%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

4.7

Surp

2.7

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Taotao Chu (Prism) - Expected: 69:31

40:60

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Curtis Roth (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Clark (Prism) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

35:65

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Oldhim) - Expected: 33:67

70:30

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Mottram (Prism) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

45:55

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Shafer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Will Rea (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 35:65

30:70

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Mark Tan (Chane) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Alan Chavarin (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.06
R2	Blitz	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.28
R3	Blitz	Prism	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R4	Blitz	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	Blitz	Prism	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R6	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.78
R7	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R8	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.56
R9	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jason Price II

133rd • 4-5-0

44%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.7

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Jeff Okrasinski (Prism) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Oldhim) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs SPENCER BIELEWICZ (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 35:65

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Alora Pickering (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Brian Spangler (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Kyra Marks (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Shimon Bandiel (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

45:55

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Brandon Fields (Bravo) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Prism	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.12
R3	Blitz	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.41
R9	Blitz	Bravo	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Patrick Shaw

138th • 4-5-0

22%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.9

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Omar Bouras (Unknown)

35:65

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Elijah Flanders (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Erik Johnson (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Chase Reiser (Dash) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Joshua Levy (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

30:70

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

25:75

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea) - Expected: 23:77

35:65

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Robert Heck (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Kolbrun Palsdottir (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Meta Fit

22% (2/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Dash	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.88
R6	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R7	Blitz	Dorinthea	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R8	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.58

Alberto Ruiz

149th • 4-5-0

33%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.5

Diff

35:65

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Saldana (Oldhim) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Cardoza (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Steven Wisdom (Dash) - Expected: 45:55

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Serena Bailey (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Jeffrey Lang (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Katie Koslosky (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Kano) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Blitz	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.35
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	Blitz	Dash	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Kano	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.44

Matt Mills

151st • 3-6-0

22%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.2

Diff

35:65

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Yunck (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs John Powell (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

35:65

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Blake Godenzi (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs James Smith (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Christopher Saldana (Oldhim) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Tristan Mitchell (Levia) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Chad Emerick (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Diana Myers (Bravo) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Damian Host (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

22% (2/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.67
R5	Blitz	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.88
R6	Blitz	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Blitz	Bravo	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R9	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Jeffrey Lang

165th • 3-6-0

44%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

35:65

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Oldhim) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Joseph Janiga (Kano) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Ferrara (Prism) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

30:70

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Patrick Nelson (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

30:70

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Mark Tan (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

45:55

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Sevak Voskerchian (Dash) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Alberto Ruiz (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Peter Zsiga (Prism) - Expected: 69:31

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Brennen Wright (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Blitz	Kano	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.32
R3	Blitz	Prism	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R4	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R5	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R6	Blitz	Dash	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Blitz	Prism	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.47
R9	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ashley Yvette Bellevue

dropped • 4-4-0

38%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.6

Diff

35:65

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Collins Mullen (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Akers (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Price (Oldhim) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Alora Pickering (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

70:30

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Peter Zsiga (Prism) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Kyle Nunn (Oldhim) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Kou Khang (Dash) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Blitz	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.59
R4	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Blitz	Prism	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.33
R6	Blitz	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.19
R7	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Blitz	Dash	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Ben Oliver

dropped • 4-4-0

12%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.5

Diff

35:65

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Elijah Flanders (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Damian Host (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Marissa Boyd (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Haik Voskerchian (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Jonathan Lemire (Prism) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Kolbrun Palsdottir (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs James Smith (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

12% (1/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	Blitz	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.47
R4	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	Blitz	Prism	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.33
R6	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.19
R7	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R8	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.51

Manny Beatty

dropped • 4-4-0

12%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.1

Diff

35:65

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Sean Knowelden (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Steven Wisdom (Dash) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Colton Miller (Bravo) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Zachary Adams (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Ben Lang (Bravo) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Haukur Thor Buason (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Kevin Brayer (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

35:65

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs nicklas starland (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

12% (1/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	Blitz	Dash	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.28
R3	Blitz	Bravo	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.41
R4	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	Blitz	Bravo	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.69
R6	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R8	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Chris Weidinger

dropped • 4-3-0

14%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.0

Diff

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Caden Stabler (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Justin Skewers (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Kano) - Expected: 37:63

45:55

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Steven Wisdom (Dash) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

45:55

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Bryce Henschel (Dash) - Expected: 45:55

30:70

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Ravi Nehra (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Blitz	Kano	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	Blitz	Dash	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.65
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.13
R6	Blitz	Dash	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.98
R7	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Lupe Khang

dropped • 4-3-0

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.5

Diff

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Henry Robichaux (Chane) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

35:65

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Kyle Nunn (Oldhim) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Long Dao (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Remington Aalbers (Kano) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Oldhim) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Steven Myers (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Chase Reiser (Dash) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

0% (0/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.25
R2	Blitz	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.45
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	Blitz	Kano	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.82
R5	Blitz	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.00
R7	Blitz	Dash	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Mitchel Tobey

dropped • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.5

Diff

35:65

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Oldhim) - Expected: 33:67

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Brennen Wright (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Robbert Valkeneers (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

45:55

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Donovan Wilcox (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Mitchell Tillery (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

30:70

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Dakota Cook (Chane) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Kurka (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.67
R5	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R6	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.50
R7	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Robert Westergaard

dropped • 2-5-0

43%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

35:65

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas McPherson (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 35:65

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Korovesi (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Thomas (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Serena Bailey (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

35:65

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Tyler Goodridge (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Brandon Fields (Bravo) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Alek Idol (Oldhim) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	Blitz	Bravo	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	Blitz	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Ryan Thomas

dropped • 2-5-0

43%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

35:65

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Corey Baker (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Connor Matza (Kano) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Robert Westergaard (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Cooper Templeton (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Bravo) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Leila Green (Uzuri) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs James Smith (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Blitz	Kano	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.41
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Bravo	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Josef Mendez

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Bryson Peek (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

35:65

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Carl Boyle (Prism) - Expected: 69:31

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Kurka (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Goodkin (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Kano) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Blitz	Prism	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.27
R4	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Kano	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Evan Ayer

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Green (Prism) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Prism) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

35:65

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Spencer Freeman (Kano) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Jordan Leggett (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs June Aino (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Reeve Chia (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.09
R2	Blitz	Prism	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	Blitz	Kano	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	Blitz	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.32
R6	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Michael Pawlak

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

35:65

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Madison Theriault (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Ian Daryl Bon (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Peter Ward (Chane) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

70:30

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Prism) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

35:65

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Nathan Gardner (Kano) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Brandon Andrews (Oldhim) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.88
R4	Blitz	Prism	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R5	Blitz	Kano	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R6	Blitz	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Michael Popowich

dropped • 2-3-0

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.2

Diff

45:55

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Kyra Marks (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Tiffany Lefebvre (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Reeve Chia (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

25:75

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Michael Crow (Dorinthea) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

45:55

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Kou Khang (Dash) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Blitz	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.51
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	Blitz	Dorinthea	25%	Win	✗	0.77	1.69
R5	Blitz	Dash	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Ian Daryl Bon

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Carbungco (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Pawlak (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Leroy Pope III (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

35:65

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Seth Shepard (Oldhim) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Zac Manmiller (Dash) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Blitz	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	Blitz	Dash	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Justin Skewers

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

35:65

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Kano) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Chris Weidinger (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Nathan Borecki (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Brennen Wright (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs William Renninger (Oldhim) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kano	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Blitz	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Jeerod Balangan

dropped • 2-2-0

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

35:65

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs John ROSE (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Rowland (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Oldhim) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.38
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.79
R3	Blitz	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	Blitz	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Darius Hambleton

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Goodkin (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Fields (Bravo) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Bowers (Oldhim) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas McPherson (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Bravo	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Blitz	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.19
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Erik Johnson

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Michael Pollock (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

35:65

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Corey Baker (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Shaw (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Shawn Sapiel (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Pete Stalker

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

35:65

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Robert Heck (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Mark Tan (Chane) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

45:55

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Shafer (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Julian Helgeson (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.88
R3	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Richard Hagberg

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

35:65

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Tatiana Parada (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Gordon Koh Koh (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Lukas Miller (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Zach Reinschreiber (Uzuri) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Erick Boeder

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Kyle Nunn (Oldhim) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Iyslander) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Zach Reinschreiber (Uzuri) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Marissa Boyd (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Jasper Hicks

dropped • 0-4-0

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Spescha (Dash) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs SPENCER BIELEWICZ (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 35:65

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Robert Abril (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

35:65

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Will Rea (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Abbas Dedanwala

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

35:65

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Oldhim) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Chenjun Liu (Oldhim) - Expected: 33:67

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs James Prince (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Blitz	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Blitz	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Mike Morelli

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Michael Riddle (Prism) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Luke Shinn (Oldhim) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Oldhim) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R2	Blitz	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Blitz	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Brandon Smith

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Brayer (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Tristan Mitchell (Levia) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Jordan Leggett (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	Blitz	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Colin Ross

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

35:65

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs John ROSE (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.