Prism at Battle Hardened - Pro Tour: Baltimore

Prism

27 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Noah Clark

2nd • 10-2-0

75%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

5.5

Surp

3.9

Diff

55:45

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Caleb Zavits (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Steven Myers (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 67:33

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Aiden Dee (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

40:60

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Justin Rowland (Briar) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Corey Baker (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Maxwell Mitchell (Briar) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

70:30

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Alexander Vore (Kano) - Expected: 72:28

55:45

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Collins Mullen (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Rob Catton (Kano) - Expected: 72:28

70:30

R10 Blitz

Round 10: Win vs Rob Catton (Kano) - Expected: 72:28

55:45

R11 Blitz

Round 11: Win vs Rose smyth (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R12 Blitz

Round 12: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.07
R2	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.10
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.43
R4	Blitz	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.45
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.36
R6	Blitz	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.68
R7	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.28
R8	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R9	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.36
R10	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.40
R11	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.80
R12	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Alex Sneed

18th • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.8

Surp

4.3

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Fields (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Long Dao (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Justin Gottlieb (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Kolbrun Palsdottir (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Yuanji Li (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Corey Baker (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Caden Stabler (Chane) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

70:30

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Spencer Freeman (Kano) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

40:60

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Maxwell Mitchell (Briar) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R4	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.39
R5	Blitz	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.46
R6	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.58
R7	Blitz	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.06
R8	Blitz	Kano	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R9	Blitz	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.36

William Bradshaw

26th • 7-2-0

67%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

4.6

Surp

4.2

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Jeremy Stowe (Kano) - Expected: 72:28

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Evan Ayer (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

55:45

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Bruno Cracco (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Eric Shoopman (Chane) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Nicolas Bouffard (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Long Dao (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Jason Counsman (Briar) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Ethan Van Sant (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Mae French (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.05
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.38
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	Blitz	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.61
R5	Blitz	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.46
R6	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	Blitz	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.06
R8	Blitz	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.73
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Daniel Ferrara

35th • 6-3-0

56%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.3

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Rob Catton (Kano) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Andrews (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Jeffrey Lang (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

40:60

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Tara Frederick (Chane) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Dustin Schutz (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Connor Bryant (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Peter Hong (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69

55:45

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Kevin Goodkin (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kano	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R2	Blitz	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.18
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.57
R4	Blitz	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.61
R5	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.58
R7	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R8	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.78
R9	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Dennis Zhang

37th • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.8

Surp

3.4

Diff

60:40

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs RONNY MARTIN (Dash) - Expected: 59:41

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Jason Cole (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Adam Bartoszek (Dash) - Expected: 59:41

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Zack Phillips (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Chase Reiser (Dash) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Bellotti (Kano) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

55:45

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Connor Bryant (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Sean Davis (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

70:30

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Kano) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.08
R2	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R4	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Blitz	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.42
R6	Blitz	Kano	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R7	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.68
R8	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.51
R9	Blitz	Kano	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-

Guillem Las Heras

44th • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.9

Diff

40:60

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Causey (Chane) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Peter Ward (Chane) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs James Smith (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Sevak Voskerchian (Dash) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Shimon Bandiel (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Aidan O'Sullivan (Kano) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Patrick Weiss (Prism) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Ravi Nehra (Chane) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	Blitz	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R4	Blitz	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.34
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.49
R6	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.58
R7	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.37
R8	Blitz	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Patrick Weiss

52nd • 6-3-0

89%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

55:45

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Justin Cardoza (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Gordon Koh Koh (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Carson Osborne (Chane) - Expected: 39:61

70:30

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Ryan Kilpatrick (Kano) - Expected: 72:28

55:45

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Corey Baker (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Prism) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Elijah Flanders (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.10
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.19
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.39
R5	Blitz	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.32
R7	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.68
R8	Blitz	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Taotao Chu

55th • 6-3-0

67%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.7

Diff

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Aiden Dee (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69

40:60

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Nicolas Snyder (Chane) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Ben Hannan (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Allen Lau (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Brayer (Chane) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Rachel Webb (Prism) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Andrew Lorenz (Kano) - Expected: 72:28

65:35

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Haik Voskerchian (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

55:45

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Paulo Fernandes (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	Blitz	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.30
R3	Blitz	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R4	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.26
R5	Blitz	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	Blitz	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.37
R8	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Austin Somers

57th • 6-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.9

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Darren Rennie (Kano) - Expected: 72:28

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs joseph lawson (Kano) - Expected: 72:28

55:45

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs David Brannen (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Jordan Blankenship (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Brittney Zeller (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 57:43

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Christopher Yunck (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Luke Shinn (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.05
R2	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.11
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	Blitz	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.54
R7	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R9	Blitz	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.82

Dallas Weart

72nd • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Schutter (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Kyra Marks (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 67:33

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Jordan Blankenship (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Kevin Brayer (Chane) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

70:30

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano) - Expected: 72:28

55:45

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Collins Mullen (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Porter Jones (Chane) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Chane) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.10
R2	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.13
R3	Blitz	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.61
R5	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.26
R6	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	Blitz	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R8	Blitz	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	Blitz	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Fred Bird

76th • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Dallas Crumlich (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Jordan Blankenship (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Curtis Roth (Briar) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Kyle Nunn (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Scott Mackenzie (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Sean Davis (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69

55:45

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Justin Matlack (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Chane) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs David Bellardini (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.45
R4	Blitz	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.37
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.49
R6	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R7	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.63
R8	Blitz	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Jason Watkins

77th • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

5.2

Surp

3.0

Diff

40:60

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Halstad (Chane) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Derek Anderson (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Chris Rowland (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

30:70

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Michael Pawlak (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

30:70

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Kyler Dustin (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

55:45

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Jason Cole (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Majin Bae (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.15
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.76
R5	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.94
R6	Blitz	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R9	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Thomas Mottram

87th • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.8

Diff

40:60

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Owen Young (Chane) - Expected: 39:61

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Devin Bell (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

70:30

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Brandon Flores (Kano) - Expected: 72:28

30:70

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Aiden Dee (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Erika Hoffman (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Rose smyth (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Mariusz Suchanecki (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 57:43

70:30

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Remington Aalbers (Kano) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R4	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.21
R5	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.94
R6	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R8	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.72
R9	Blitz	Kano	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-

Rachel Webb

88th • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

40:60

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Rowland (Briar) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Dave Cordeiro (Prism) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Kerch (Dash) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Kyler Dustin (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69

55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Prism) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Ryan Kilpatrick (Kano) - Expected: 72:28

55:45

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Quinn Toulouse (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Brittney Zeller (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	Blitz	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Blitz	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R4	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.49
R6	Blitz	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.37
R8	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.72
R9	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Leo Shea

123rd • 4-5-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

5.1

Surp

2.4

Diff

40:60

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Tiffany Lefebvre (Briar) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Matlack (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Chad Emerick (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Nick Kiourkas (Dash) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Brandon Flores (Kano) - Expected: 72:28

30:70

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Haukur Thor Buason (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Brandon Andrews (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.15
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.57
R4	Blitz	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	Blitz	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.32
R7	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.32
R8	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Blitz	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Skyler Lewis

148th • 4-5-0

78%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Kano) - Expected: 72:28

55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Haik Voskerchian (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Ravi Nehra (Chane) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs RONNY MARTIN (Dash) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Wagoner (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Amber Zee (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Airton dos Santos Junior (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Kyle Nunn (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (4.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.05
R2	Blitz	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R4	Blitz	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	Blitz	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R7	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.82

Tyler Wolford

dropped • 3-5-0

38%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Natalie Edwards (Briar) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Kurka (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Briar) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Reeve Chia (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Jason Counsman (Briar) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Eric Shoopman (Chane) - Expected: 39:61

30:70

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Kyler Dustin (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.17
R2	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Blitz	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	Blitz	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.55
R6	Blitz	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	Blitz	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R8	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Peter Zsiga

dropped • 2-6-0

75%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Dustin Schutz (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Nick Gabler (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Korovesi (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Devin Bell (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Ashley Yvette Bellevue (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69

60:40

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Tyler Kerch (Dash) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Jonathan Price (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Jeffrey Lang (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R5	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R6	Blitz	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R7	Blitz	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.72
R8	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Steven Caraher

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Cameron Whitesell (Dash) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Nathan Gardner (Kano) - Expected: 72:28

55:45

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Nam Vo (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Shing Tsang (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Kano) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

30:70

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Peter Hong (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69

55:45

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Majin Bae (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.14
R3	Blitz	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R4	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.50
R5	Blitz	Kano	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R6	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R7	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Dave Cordeiro

dropped • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Shaffer (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Rachel Webb (Prism) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Justin Beichler (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

30:70

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Benjamin Wagoner (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

65:35

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Kyra Marks (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Jordan Blankenship (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Cameron Whitesell (Dash) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Blitz	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.97
R5	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R6	Blitz	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Jeff Okrasinski

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Jason Price II (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Andre Maldonado (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Brian Spangler (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Jordan Brengartner (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Rowland (Briar) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.73
R6	Blitz	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Michel Corvino

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Brown (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Dakota Cook (Chane) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Vladimir Del Valle (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Brandon Canedy (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Nils Klaper (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Luke Shinn (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Blitz	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.46
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	Blitz	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Brandon Green

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Evan Ayer (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69

55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Ethan Van Sant (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs RONNY MARTIN (Dash) - Expected: 59:41

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Andre Maldonado (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Brandon Andrews (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	Blitz	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Blitz	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Blitz	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Jonathan Lemire

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Lee Conner (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

40:60

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Halstad (Chane) - Expected: 39:61

30:70

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Ben Oliver (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Blitz	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Christian Weißling

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Brian Spangler (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Dietz (Oldhim) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Kyle Mattinson (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Blitz	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Michael Riddle

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.4

Diff

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Mike Morelli (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69

55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Ektor Angelomatis (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Dakota Cook (Chane) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

30:70

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Dexter Phan (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R3	Blitz	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.03
R4	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Carl Boyle

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Iyslander) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Tara Frederick (Chane) - Expected: 39:61

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Josef Mendez (Rhinar) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R2	Blitz	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.