Battle Hardened - Pro Tour: Baltimore - Dash (Blitz)

Dash

16 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Chase Reiser

79th • 5-4-0

44%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Donald Kell (Dash) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Bravo) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Graham Molsick (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Patrick Shaw (Rhinar) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Prism) - Expected: 41:59

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Spencer Fritts (Katsu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Lupe Khang (Rhinar) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Ravi Nehra (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

45:55

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Bravo	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.41
R4	Blitz	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.39
R5	Blitz	Prism	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	Blitz	Katsu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.68
R8	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Jackie Rousseau

85th • 5-4-0

33%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.6

Surp

2.9

Diff

45:55

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Shimon Bandiel (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Krebs (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Paulo Fernandes (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Aidan O'Sullivan (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Cooper Templeton (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

30:70

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Charles Simmons (Chane) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

45:55

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Austin Redington (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.14
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.27
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.42
R5	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.15
R7	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Christopher Spescha

103rd • 5-4-0

22%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.7

Diff

55:45

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Jasper Hicks (Rhinar) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Jeremy Seibert (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Majin Bae (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Quinn Toulouse (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Owen Young (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

45:55

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Justin Gottlieb (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Krebs (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Kyra Marks (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

22% (2/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.10
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.27
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.68
R6	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R7	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.95
R8	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R9	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.70

Zac Manmiller

114th • 5-4-0

56%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Joseph Janiga (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Vladimir Del Valle (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Padlesky (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

40:60

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs John ROSE (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Ian Daryl Bon (Rhinar) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Eric Shoopman (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Airton dos Santos Junior (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Spencer Fritts (Katsu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Nicholas Mejac (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.11
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	Blitz	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.49
R6	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R7	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Blitz	Katsu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Tyler Kerch

116th • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.7

Surp

4.2

Diff

55:45

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Sean Davis (Rhinar) - Expected: 55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Katie Koslosky (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Rachel Webb (Prism) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Chris Rowland (Uzuri) - Expected: 55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Tristan Mitchell (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Peter Zsiga (Prism) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Tara Frederick (Chane) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Amber Zee (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

55:45

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Dexter Phan (Rhinar) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Blitz	Prism	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	Blitz	Uzuri	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	Blitz	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Prism	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.86
R7	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.34
R8	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Blitz	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Nick Kiourkas

122nd • 4-5-0

56%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

4.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Felipe Costa Batista (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Leila Green (Uzuri) - Expected: 55:45

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Anthony Chiechi (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Leo Shea (Prism) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Kevin Canales (Briar) - Expected: 30:70

30:70

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Henry Robichaux (Chane) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

45:55

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs David Bellardini (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Scott Egan (Uzuri) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Uzuri	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.19
R3	Blitz	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.42
R5	Blitz	Prism	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.72
R6	Blitz	Briar	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R7	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.34
R8	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R9	Blitz	Uzuri	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Adam Bartoszek

136th • 4-5-0

22%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.7

Diff

40:60

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs James Smith (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Charles Simmons (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Prism) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Oscar Ojeda Gomez (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Will Rea (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 41:59

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Katie Koslosky (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Tristan Mitchell (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Justin Gottlieb (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Justin Matlack (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

22% (2/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.14
R2	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Blitz	Prism	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.09
R9	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Kou Khang

dropped • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Wesley Dong (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Williamson (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Ian Shaffer (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Michael Popowich (Rhinar) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Leila Green (Uzuri) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Ashley Yvette Bellevue (Rhinar) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.31
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.46
R4	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Blitz	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.55
R6	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	Blitz	Uzuri	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.77
R8	Blitz	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Cameron Whitesell

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.7

Diff

40:60

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Steven Caraher (Prism) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Wagoner (Rhinar) - Expected: 55:45

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Canedy (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Chenjun Liu (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

35:65

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Diana Myers (Bravo) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Steven Wisdom (Dash) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Dave Cordeiro (Prism) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.25
R3	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Bravo	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.13
R6	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Prism	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.29

Sevak Voskerchian

dropped • 2-5-0

29%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Cody Diaz (Briar) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

45:55

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Seibert (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Prism) - Expected: 41:59

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Brian Spangler (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Jeffrey Lang (Rhinar) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Dakota Cook (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Briar	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.25
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Blitz	Prism	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.75
R7	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Bryce Henschel

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Gordon Koh Koh (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Bruno Cracco (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Scott Egan (Uzuri) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Wesley Dong (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Julian Helgeson (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Chris Weidinger (Rhinar) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.20
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Blitz	Uzuri	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.81
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.02
R6	Blitz	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Luke Magnuson

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.5

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Airton dos Santos Junior (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Duggan (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Natalie Edwards (Briar) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

30:70

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Levy (Briar) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

30:70

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Halstad (Chane) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Felipe Costa Batista (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Blitz	Briar	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.87
R4	Blitz	Briar	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.16
R5	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.44
R6	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

RONNY MARTIN

dropped • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

40:60

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Prism) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Reeve Chia (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Green (Prism) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Leila Green (Uzuri) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Skyler Lewis (Prism) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Jordan Leggett (Briar) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Blitz	Prism	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.64
R4	Blitz	Uzuri	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.58
R5	Blitz	Prism	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.07
R6	Blitz	Briar	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Steven Wisdom

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

45:55

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Graham Molsick (Iyslander) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Manny Beatty (Rhinar) - Expected: 55:45

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Michael Pollock (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Chris Weidinger (Rhinar) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Alberto Ruiz (Rhinar) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Cameron Whitesell (Dash) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Blitz	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Blitz	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	Blitz	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.73
R6	Blitz	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Anthony Gatta

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Briar) - Expected: 30:70

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Robbert Valkeneers (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Andrews (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Briar	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	Blitz	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Donald Kell

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Chase Reiser (Dash) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Serena Bailey (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Mark Tan (Chane) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.