Battle Hardened - Pro Tour: Baltimore - Chane (Blitz)

Chane

32 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Carson Osborne

10th • 7-2-0

22%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

5.1

Surp

4.5

Diff

45:55

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Liam Bennett (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Blackwell (Riptide) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Molho (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

70:30

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Rob Catton (Kano) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

60:40

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Patrick Weiss (Prism) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Philip van Donselaar (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs nathan lapham (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Madison Theriault (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Vladimir Del Valle (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

22% (2/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.13
R2	Blitz	Riptide	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.31
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.46
R4	Blitz	Kano	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R5	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.39
R6	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.92
R7	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.07
R8	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.22
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Caden Stabler

20th • 7-2-0

44%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.5

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Chris Weidinger (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Haik Voskerchian (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Derek Anderson (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Madison Theriault (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

70:30

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Nova Chan (Kano) - Expected: 70:30

40:60

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Alex Sneed (Prism) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

70:30

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Kano) - Expected: 70:30

40:60

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Shawn Sapiel (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.06
R2	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.25
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.46
R4	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.61
R5	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.29
R6	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R8	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.46
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.37

Daniel Dreisziger

22nd • 7-2-0

44%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

4.3

Surp

4.0

Diff

65:35

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Colton Miller (Bravo) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs June Aino (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Collins Mullen (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Justin Carbungco (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Travis Woodward (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs David Brannen (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Fred Bird (Prism) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Haik Voskerchian (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Bravo	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.07
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.31
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.92
R7	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R8	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.63
R9	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.13

Ravi Nehra

25th • 7-2-0

67%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Porter Jones (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Alex Slotnick (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Corey Baker (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Skyler Lewis (Prism) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Jason Counsman (Briar) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

70:30

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Chris Weidinger (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Chase Reiser (Dash) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Guillem Las Heras (Prism) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.31
R5	Blitz	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.60
R6	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	Blitz	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.39
R8	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.46
R9	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.71

Porter Jones

29th • 7-2-0

56%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

4.6

Surp

5.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Ravi Nehra (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Dallas Crumlich (Bravo) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Justin Cardoza (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Robbert Valkeneers (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Blake Godenzi (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs David Bellardini (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Adrian Gebhart (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

60:40

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Dallas Weart (Prism) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Majin Bae (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

5.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Bravo	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.14
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.46
R4	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.46
R6	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.92
R7	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.07
R8	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.63
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.37

Robbert Valkeneers

40th • 6-3-0

56%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.5

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Jordan Blankenship (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Anthony Gatta (Dash) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Mitchel Tobey (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Porter Jones (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Ryan Schutter (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Henry Robichaux (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Lucas Molho (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

45:55

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.12
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.17
R4	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.07
R8	Blitz	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.04
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Kevin Brayer

51st • 6-3-0

56%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.8

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Smith (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Amber Zee (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Cooper Templeton (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Dallas Weart (Prism) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Taotao Chu (Prism) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

70:30

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Manny Beatty (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Briar) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs David Brannen (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.06
R2	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.37
R4	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.39
R6	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	Blitz	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.39
R8	Blitz	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.37

Andrew Padlesky

56th • 6-3-0

56%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.7

Diff

40:60

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Riptide) - Expected: 38:62

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Darren Rennie (Kano) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Zac Manmiller (Dash) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Melson (Bravo) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Paulo Fernandes (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

70:30

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Patrick Shaw (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30

40:60

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Adam Filipchuk (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Scott Mackenzie (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Dallas Weart (Prism) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Riptide	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.12
R3	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.17
R4	Blitz	Bravo	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.27
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	Blitz	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.34
R7	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.07
R8	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.71

Nathan Borecki

94th • 5-4-0

44%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.4

Diff

40:60

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Scott Mackenzie (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Cameron Boutot (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Justin Skewers (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30

40:60

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

65:35

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Ben Lang (Bravo) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Damian Host (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Dexter Phan (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.17
R4	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.76
R6	Blitz	Bravo	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.41
R7	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R8	Blitz	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.45
R9	Blitz	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Owen Young

97th • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

60:40

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Mottram (Prism) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Koslosky (Bravo) - Expected: 65:35

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Lorenz (Kano) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Bellotti (Kano) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

45:55

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Ethan Van Sant (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Christopher Spescha (Dash) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Christopher Higashi (Briar) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Chris Rowland (Uzuri) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Erika Hoffman (Uzuri) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (5.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.08
R2	Blitz	Bravo	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.14
R3	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.17
R4	Blitz	Kano	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R5	Blitz	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R6	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.35
R7	Blitz	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Peter Ward

101st • 5-4-0

44%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.7

Diff

40:60

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Long Dao (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Guillem Las Heras (Prism) - Expected: 61:39

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Pawlak (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

80:20

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Lau (Dorinthea) - Expected: 79:21

45:55

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Alek Idol (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Rath (Kano) - Expected: 70:30

40:60

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Scott Mackenzie (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Corey Baker (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Ovas Siddiqui (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.16
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R4	Blitz	Dorinthea	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.15
R5	Blitz	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.65
R6	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.35
R7	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R8	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.37

Zdeněk Matura

108th • 5-4-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.3

Diff

40:60

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Canedy (Riptide) - Expected: 38:62

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Mejac (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Kurka (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

65:35

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Colton Miller (Bravo) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Adrian Gebhart (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Amber Zee (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

55:45

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Kyle Mattinson (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

70:30

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Kyler Dustin (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Riptide	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	Blitz	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Bravo	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.27
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R8	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	Blitz	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.51

John Powell

118th • 4-5-0

44%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

40:60

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Matt Mills (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Ovas Siddiqui (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

65:35

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Ben Lang (Bravo) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Sage Husanu (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

45:55

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Cooper Templeton (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Tyler Goodridge (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Brittney Zeller (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Brett Merold (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.11
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.46
R4	Blitz	Bravo	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.27
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.76
R6	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Charles Simmons

120th • 4-5-0

78%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

4.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs David Bellardini (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Adam Bartoszek (Dash) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Tara Frederick (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Erika Forslöf (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

70:30

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Dexter Phan (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

70:30

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Jackie Rousseau (Dash) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

70:30

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs James Arthur (Kano) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Chad Emerick (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Dustin Schutz (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (5.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.15
R2	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.12
R3	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	Blitz	Rhinar	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R6	Blitz	Dash	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R7	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.40
R8	Blitz	Rhinar	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R9	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Patrick Nelson

134th • 4-5-0

78%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Quinn Toulouse (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Stephan Schwarz (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Marvin Dominguez (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

70:30

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Jeffrey Lang (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30

40:60

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Jeff Stamm (Riptide) - Expected: 38:62

70:30

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Chad Emerick (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

55:45

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Sean Knowelden (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Jonah Overholt (Kano) - Expected: 70:30

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Jason Cole (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	Blitz	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.23
R5	Blitz	Riptide	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R6	Blitz	Rhinar	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R7	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R8	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.46
R9	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dakota Cook

143rd • 4-5-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

4.9

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Alek Idol (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Michel Corvino (Prism) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Riddle (Prism) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Sean Knowelden (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Haukur Thor Buason (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

70:30

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Mitchel Tobey (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

70:30

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Sevak Voskerchian (Dash) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs William Renninger (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (5.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.13
R2	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.37
R5	Blitz	Rhinar	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R6	Blitz	Rhinar	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R7	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.40
R8	Blitz	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R9	Blitz	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.17

Tara Frederick

166th • 2-7-0

78%

Meta

-2.7

Perf

4.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Tristan Mitchell (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Carl Boyle (Prism) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Charles Simmons (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Ferrara (Prism) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

40:60

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Stephan Schwarz (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Chris Rowland (Uzuri) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Tyler Kerch (Dash) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

40:60

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Kolbrun Palsdottir (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Katie Koslosky (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.16
R3	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Dash	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R8	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alex Slotnick

dropped • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Rath (Kano) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Ravi Nehra (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Pierre-Olivier Vallerand Beaudry (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Duggan (Kano) - Expected: 70:30

40:60

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Jack Raven (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

70:30

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs James Arthur (Kano) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Luke Shinn (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.06
R2	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R5	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.39
R7	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R8	Blitz	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Mark Tan

dropped • 3-5-0

75%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

40:60

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Majin Bae (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Pete Stalker (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Donald Kell (Dash) - Expected: 70:30

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Blake Godenzi (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Jeffrey Lang (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30

40:60

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Williamson (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Alora Pickering (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

70:30

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Aiden Dee (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R3	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.19
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Blitz	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.32
R6	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Blitz	Rhinar	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Eric Shoopman

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Nils Klaper (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 56:44

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Leroy Pope III (Benji, the Piercing Wind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs joseph lawson (Kano) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Prism) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

45:55

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Jordan Leggett (Briar) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Zac Manmiller (Dash) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Tyler Wolford (Prism) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Blitz	Benji, the Piercing Wind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.22
R4	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	Blitz	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.45
R7	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.71

Henry Robichaux

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Lupe Khang (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

40:60

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Andre Maldonado (Riptide) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Alex Espinoza (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Filipchuk (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Brandon Canedy (Riptide) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Robbert Valkeneers (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Nick Kiourkas (Dash) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Rhinar	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R2	Blitz	Riptide	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.40
R3	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	Blitz	Riptide	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.01
R6	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Dash	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Mitchell Tillery

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Luke Shinn (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs James Smith (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs David Bellardini (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Joshua Gates (Uzuri) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Mitchel Tobey (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30

55:45

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Tyler Goodridge (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Bravo) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Blitz	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.36
R6	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	Blitz	Bravo	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Travis Woodward

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Dexter Phan (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs David Letourneau (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Kilpatrick (Kano) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Briar) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Dreisziger (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Remington Aalbers (Kano) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.08
R2	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R4	Blitz	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Kano	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Matthew Halstad

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

60:40

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Prism) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs James Arthur (Kano) - Expected: 70:30

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Krebs (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Lemire (Prism) - Expected: 61:39

70:30

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Dash) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

40:60

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Ovas Siddiqui (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.17
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.47
R5	Blitz	Dash	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R6	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Michael Causey

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.1

Diff

60:40

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Guillem Las Heras (Prism) - Expected: 61:39

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Nova Chan (Kano) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Blackwell (Riptide) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Bryson Peek (Yoji, Royal Protector) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Sean Knowelden (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.14
R2	Blitz	Kano	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R3	Blitz	Riptide	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Blitz	Yoji, Royal Protector	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Robert Abril

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Higashi (Briar) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Seth Shepard (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Jasper Hicks (Rhinar) - Expected: 70:30

55:45

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Goodridge (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Blitz	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.38
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Alex Espinoza

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Matlack (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Devin Bell (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Henry Robichaux (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	Blitz	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.78
R3	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Edward Kim

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Allen Lau (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 46:54

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Amber Zee (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.39
R2	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthew McInnis

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Lukas Miller (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Tatiana Parada (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

randy lavoie

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Zachary Adams (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

45:55

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Jake Ausdemore (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Dietz (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.46
R2	Blitz	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Blitz	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Lucas Codato Antonio Silva

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Erika Hoffman (Uzuri) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Adam Filipchuk (Iyslander) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs William Renninger (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	Blitz	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Nicolas Snyder

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Oldhim) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Taotao Chu (Prism) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

80:20

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Crow (Dorinthea) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	Blitz	Dorinthea	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.